What do you get when you combine moribund trailing realized vol with recently firmer implied
Author: therealheisenberg
Justifiable Propaganda
I’m hittin’ the “bubble” theme pretty hard lately. Some of you are probably tired of
The General State Of Things
It’s not all about AI. The equity rally, I mean. But there’s a self-fulfilling prophecy
Chip Chasin’
They’re chasin’ it. The rally, I mean. If that sounds like a familiar opener (“Do
Hype Machine Volume: 11
OpenAI. Ever heard of it? The funny thing is, most people hadn’t until not so
Gold, Bitcoin And Breaching The Laugh Threshold
We might’ve (b)reached the “laugh threshold.” During the pandemic, I was a staunch defender of
Expeditionary Force
Is that legal? If so, how? Those two questions come up a lot these days
Remember Nvidia?
In an October 4 piece for Bloomberg, Seth Fiegerman and Carmen Reinicke wrote, of the
Troops In The Streets, Layoffs In The Capital
This week’s US data docket would be light even if government reports weren’t suspended for
Weekly: Perfect Storm, Imperfect Union Revisited
In December of 2023, I published a piece called “Perfect Storm, Imperfect Union.” Technically, it
Why The Stock Bubble Might Not Pop. Yet.
Why do cycles die? There are a lot of possible (plausible) answers, but one of
Wall Street Versus Main Street: It’s Complicated
True or false: The stock market = the economy. True or false: Wall Street =
Trump Will Bring Peace To Mideast By Sunday. With Violence If Necessary
Donald Trump’s going to bring peace to the Middle East even if he has to
Damn You, Stagflation!
It’s a miss. Wait, I have to snap everyone out of their equity melt-up stupor,
How The Stock Melt-Up Dies. Or Not.
I suppose it’s just as well we’re not getting a US jobs report on Friday.
The Leader We Deserve
Remember when Donald Trump didn’t have anything to do with Project 2025, let alone any
Gang Aft Agley
Hiring. US private sector employers aren’t. Or at least not according to this week’s ADP
‘By Far The Largest On Record’ (Bubble Tickets)
They’re grabbing for upside. Or buying lottery tickets. Or they’re just keen to ride a
US Jobless Rate Biased Higher In September, New Fed Model Shows
The unemployment rate in the US probably stuck at 4.3% last month, but it “wants”
Lights Out
Late Tuesday evening, with the US government shutdown clock ticking down under four hours, Donald
SCOTUS Draws A Line At The Fed. For Now.
What’s that I perceive, glimmering faintly in the smoldering ashes of a republic we couldn’t
‘Tariffs Are Killing Us’: Trade Taxes Prolong US Factory Recession
Could’ve been worse. But it was still pretty bad. That’s my take on Wednesday’s ISM
Ruh-Roh! Hammer Falls On US Labor Market
Ruh-roh! The US private sector lost 32,000 jobs on net in September, according to the
Can De-Globalization Be Good For Corporate Profits?
Maybe globalization wasn’t such a great idea after all. That’s been the rallying cry for
Is The S&P ‘The New Risk-Free Rate’?
This time’s different. (Narrator: It’s not.) A couple of days ago, someone sent me a
Now Hiring?
The good news is, job openings across the world’s largest economy stabilized after falling for
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