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Author: therealheisenberg

Not Hiring

November 11, 2025November 12, 2025

Breaking news: The US labor market’s slowing. A dearth of tradable narratives during Tuesday’s bond

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2 Comments on Not Hiring

Michael Burry, The Hyper-Scalers And A $176 Billion ‘Fraud’

November 11, 2025November 12, 2025

I’m avowedly not a Michael Burry fan. Most of you know that. He’s crazy, and

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12 Comments on Michael Burry, The Hyper-Scalers And A $176 Billion ‘Fraud’

A Word On CoreWeave…

November 11, 2025November 12, 2025

If you’re not familiar with CoreWeave by now, you need to remedy that situation posthaste,

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9 Comments on A Word On CoreWeave…

Trump Raises Specter Of Constitutional Crisis Over Tariff Refund

November 10, 2025November 12, 2025

You gotta hand it to him. I don’t know what “it” is on some days,

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13 Comments on Trump Raises Specter Of Constitutional Crisis Over Tariff Refund

How To Be A Contrarian

November 10, 2025November 11, 2025

Do you fancy yourself a contrarian? Of course you do. Just like everyone else who

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2 Comments on How To Be A Contrarian

Why Trump’s Supreme Court Tariff Case Is ‘Too Big To Lose’

November 10, 2025November 11, 2025

Donald Trump’s tariff regime or, getting straight to the point, pending litigation against the levies,

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3 Comments on Why Trump’s Supreme Court Tariff Case Is ‘Too Big To Lose’

Democrats Were Tired Of Winning

November 10, 2025November 11, 2025

Democrats were, I think, “winning” the US government shutdown. But they got tired of it.

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15 Comments on Democrats Were Tired Of Winning

A Private Sector Solution

November 9, 2025November 10, 2025

Investors and policymakers will miss a second update on consumer price growth in the US

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5 Comments on A Private Sector Solution

Chinese Deflation Eases On Holiday Effect, But Crisis Far From Over

November 9, 2025November 10, 2025

The good news is, deflation in China eased last month. The bad news (or the

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Weekly: Is Trump The Dog Who Caught The Car?

November 8, 2025November 10, 2025

A year on from Donald Trump’s reelection, the president who promised a “new golden age”

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14 Comments on Weekly: Is Trump The Dog Who Caught The Car?

Tech Downside Likely Amplified By Leveraged Stock ETFs

November 7, 2025November 7, 2025

Earlier this week, I highlighted (or re-highlighted is more apt given the number of times

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1 Comment on Tech Downside Likely Amplified By Leveraged Stock ETFs

Leveraged Buildout

November 7, 2025November 10, 2025

Last weekend, I noted that it’s not realistic to expect America’s largest hyper-scalers to fund

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4 Comments on Leveraged Buildout

Trump Gets God-Awful Read On Consumer Sentiment

November 7, 2025November 9, 2025

Donald Trump and the personality cult that is the Republican party need to be careful:

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4 Comments on Trump Gets God-Awful Read On Consumer Sentiment

Xi Jinping’s Export Machine Slams Into Reverse

November 7, 2025November 9, 2025

And just like that, the only reliable pillar supporting the Chinese growth impulse looks wobbly.

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Should Taxpayers Preemptively Bail Out OpenAI?

November 6, 2025November 8, 2025

We’ve come too far, there’s too much to lose!  — Frank Ricard As questions mount

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35 Comments on Should Taxpayers Preemptively Bail Out OpenAI?

US Economy Lost Jobs In October, Alternative Facts Suggest

November 6, 2025November 7, 2025

If you’ve never heard of the Revelio Public Labor Statistics, don’t worry: The data wasn’t

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BoE Gambles On Inflation Ebb With Dovish Pivot

November 6, 2025November 7, 2025

Bank of England policy decisions are comedic these days. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen

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Bleak Report Shows US Job Cuts Soaring, Hiring Plans Plunging

November 6, 2025November 7, 2025

Job cuts. They’re happening in America. Lots of them by appearances. The monthly Challenger, Gray

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1 Comment on Bleak Report Shows US Job Cuts Soaring, Hiring Plans Plunging

Zohran Mamdani’s Not Crazy, The Rest Of Us Are

November 5, 2025November 6, 2025

I have no interest in debating New Yorkers about the merits of a Zohran Mamdani

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28 Comments on Zohran Mamdani’s Not Crazy, The Rest Of Us Are

US Services Activity Heats Up. Price Index Is Sky-High

November 5, 2025November 6, 2025

If you’re looking for recession canaries, you won’t find them in the marquee measure of

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1 Comment on US Services Activity Heats Up. Price Index Is Sky-High

Treasury Tweaks Coupon Auction Guidance First Time Since Yellen

November 5, 2025November 6, 2025

For the first time since Janet Yellen inaugurated conciliatory language to placate an irritable market

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6 Comments on Treasury Tweaks Coupon Auction Guidance First Time Since Yellen

Coy Labor Market Leaves Fed Divided

November 5, 2025November 6, 2025

Private sector employers in the US added more jobs than expected in October, this week’s

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1 Comment on Coy Labor Market Leaves Fed Divided

36 Days

November 4, 2025November 5, 2025

Not that markets care (Tuesday’s stock selloff had nothing to do with whether the US

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4 Comments on 36 Days

In US Housing, Turnover’s Never Been Lower

November 4, 2025November 4, 2025

America’s resale housing market remains woefully — perennially, even– beset. Closings have managed just a

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The Underappreciated Impact Of Leveraged Stock ETFs

November 4, 2025November 5, 2025

Occasionally, you’ll see a mainstream financial media article about leveraged ETFs, but such pieces are

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7 Comments on The Underappreciated Impact Of Leveraged Stock ETFs

Another Froth Chart

November 4, 2025November 5, 2025

Did you hear? There’s a bubble afoot. The financial media’s all over it. Michael Burry

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3 Comments on Another Froth Chart

Shiller! Bubbles! Burry!

November 4, 2025November 5, 2025

Ted Pick says “We should welcome the possibility [of a] 10% to 15% drawdown” in

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4 Comments on Shiller! Bubbles! Burry!

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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