It’s probably fair to call 2025 one of the worst years ever for homebuilder sentiment
Author: therealheisenberg
Vanke, Last Of The Giants, Nears Default
China Vanke’s special. Or at least it was. In a property sector where every major
China Reports Retail Sales Disaster. Investment Decline Deepens
The Chinese economy put up an especially lackluster showing in November, according to data released
Long, Lost US Jobs Data, BoJ Hike Headline Packed Macro Docket
It’s a big week for US macro data. On Tuesday, the BLS will release a
A Year After Assad’s Fall, Syria Remains In Limbo
By and by, Ahmad al-Sharaa, stage name Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, will probably rule Syria as
Raed Saad, Signing Off
A crimson stain next to a charred tangle of steel and aluminum. That’s all that’s
Weekly: Will Elon Musk, Trillionaire, Be A Wake-Up Call?
I often wonder if there’s an absurdity threshold for American-style capitalism. A boundary which, if
Oracle News Goes From Bad To Worse
If you’re an Oracle bull this wasn’t your week. Fresh off a ~$70 billion rout
Trump’s Rumored ‘Core 5’ Is A Dictator’s Dream
Donald Trump’s long advocated for a reconstituted G8, which is to say for bringing Russia
Famous Risk Indicator Picks Up AI Bubble After ‘Revamp’
Sell! Not investment advice. Do your own research. Consult your financial advisor whose office in
China Readies ‘Largest-Ever’ State Semi Program With 500 Billion AI Plan
When it comes to industrial policy, no one does it quite like the Chinese. That’s
The Skipper, The Oil And The Prize-Winner
Dave Chappelle once called Donald Trump an “honest liar,” which struck me as an apt
So… Oracle
Oracle’s the poster child for the market’s AI capex concerns, and also for investors’ growing
US Jobless Claims Soar As Turkey Distortion Disappears
The holiday-impacted plunge in initial US jobless claims was an anomaly. Who could’ve known? Last
Trump Goes Fishing, Scores ‘Largest Oil Tanker Ever Seized’
Maybe Pete Hegseth’s a war criminal, maybe he isn’t, but Donald Trump’s definitely a pirate.
Walking And Chewing Gum
The policy rate’s in the neighborhood of neutral and having delivered 75bps of cuts since
Flying Blind Behind Lame Duck, Divided Fed Braves Hawkish Cut
A Fed flying partially blind due to delays in the publication of key government data
China Discovers Cure For Deflation: Gold
I noticed people have given up trying to pretend China’s not shin-deep in a disinflationary
DeepSeek Has Blackwell
China doesn’t need to participate in Donald Trump’s pay-to-play deal with Nvidia, apparently. Hot on the
‘The Hassett Premium’
One consequence of a Kevin Hassett Fed is likely to be increased market concern around
Trump Says Lowering Rates Is ‘Litmus Test’ For New Fed Chair
Donald Trump wants the Fed to keep cutting rates. Did he mention that? Because if
More Layoffs, Fewer Quits Add To Evidence Of Labor Market Cracks
There were 7.67 million job openings across the US economy on the last business day
US Hiring Registers A Pulse, Small Business Worry Grows
Good news: The trend in US private sector hiring improved late last month. That was
Nvidia’s New Pay-To-Play
If I were the Party in Beijing, I’m not sure how I’d approach Donald Trump’s
Maybe Trump Does Have A Macro Plan For 2026
Over the weekend, in “Dead End,” I suggested The White House has no real plan
Middle-Class Should Do Well In 2026. The Poor, Not So Much
Good news for the middle-class in America. Statements like that should always be accompanied by
Trillion-Dollar Man
China’s export machine rumbled back last month after sputtering in October, a relief for an
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