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Author: therealheisenberg

Results Pending

February 29, 2024March 1, 2024

The rebound in existing US home sales during the first month of 2024 may prove

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2 Comments on Results Pending

Making Do With Euphoria

February 29, 2024March 1, 2024

With two months in the books, 2024’s been generous to equity bulls. Both big-cap US

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3 Comments on Making Do With Euphoria

Sinners And Saviors

February 28, 2024March 4, 2025

“I’m not asking you to play savior here. Just $500 to pay the electric bill

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12 Comments on Sinners And Saviors

Trump Completes GOP Conquest As Mitch McConnell Abdicates

February 28, 2024March 4, 2024

Mitch McConnell’s a lot of things, but naive isn’t one of them. And naive right

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3 Comments on Trump Completes GOP Conquest As Mitch McConnell Abdicates

‘Egregiously Expensive’ Stocks Shouldn’t Keep You Up At Night, Subramanian Says

February 28, 2024February 29, 2024

The S&P 500’s “egregiously expensive.” That’s the bad news. The good news is, you shouldn’t

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1 Comment on ‘Egregiously Expensive’ Stocks Shouldn’t Keep You Up At Night, Subramanian Says

No Rush

February 28, 2024February 29, 2024

As tipped here earlier this week and on several occasions last, Fed rate-cut pricing for

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7 Comments on No Rush

Spending Quicker, Inflation Warmer, US GDP Revisions Show

February 28, 2024February 29, 2024

Inflation was a little warmer, spending a little quicker and overall growth a little slower

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1 Comment on Spending Quicker, Inflation Warmer, US GDP Revisions Show

Marko And The Mortals, Revisited

February 27, 2024February 28, 2024

If you’ve been bearish (or “cautious” or “defensive”) in the face of a rally that’s

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4 Comments on Marko And The Mortals, Revisited

‘An Incredibly Surprising Result’

February 27, 2024February 27, 2024

I’ve been on (and on and on) about the extent to which windfall interest income

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Trump Mythos Renders Biden’s Economic Reality Meaningless

February 27, 2024March 27, 2024

Janet Yellen says Joe Biden saved the world. “Over the past year, global growth has

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13 Comments on Trump Mythos Renders Biden’s Economic Reality Meaningless

Expensive Houses, Falling Confidence

February 27, 2024February 28, 2024

US home prices are rising at the briskest annual rate since November of 2022 and

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The Fed Put’s Alive And Well

February 26, 2024February 26, 2024

Last month, I spent some time editorializing around a 2024 outlook piece which echoed many

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I Gotta Have More Magnificent 7

February 26, 2024February 28, 2024

I might’ve mentioned this last week. I honestly can’t remember. And no, any recollection failure

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1 Comment on I Gotta Have More Magnificent 7

One Bank Asks: Is The Tech Ecosystem Now Its Own Asset Class?

February 26, 2024February 27, 2024

People are beginning to ask some — how should I put this? — interesting questions

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2 Comments on One Bank Asks: Is The Tech Ecosystem Now Its Own Asset Class?

New Home Sales Meander Amid Intractable American Housing Conundrum

February 26, 2024February 27, 2024

New home sales in the US rose at just half the expected pace in January,

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6 Comments on New Home Sales Meander Amid Intractable American Housing Conundrum

Strategy For A Crucial, All-Important Week

February 26, 2024February 27, 2024

New week, same debates. The sparse color on offer Monday trod familiar ground as traders

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3 Comments on Strategy For A Crucial, All-Important Week

Magic Sauce

February 25, 2024February 26, 2024

I probably shouldn’t have read Warren Buffett’s annual letter. It only reminded me of the

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5 Comments on Magic Sauce

Is Nvidia Surge A ‘Blow-Off Top?’ If So, What’s Next?

February 25, 2024February 25, 2024

Are we witnessing a “blow-off top” in equities? To answer that, we have to define

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Inflation Test Looms As Stocks Ask, ‘Who Needs Rate Cuts, Anyway?’

February 25, 2024March 4, 2024

The schedule’s pretty crowded this week in the US. An update on the Fed’s preferred

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After Munger, Buffett Says Berkshire’s Size Rules Out Big Performance

February 24, 2024February 26, 2024

I’m going to dial back (which is to say omit entirely) the sarcasm and snark

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7 Comments on After Munger, Buffett Says Berkshire’s Size Rules Out Big Performance

Inflows To US Stock Funds Accelerate Amid AI Frenzy

February 23, 2024February 23, 2024

US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds saw their largest inflow of the year over the

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Dynamics Of A ‘Never-Ending Stock Melt-Up’

February 23, 2024July 1, 2025

“A never-ending melt-up in index.” That’s what befuddled bears were pondering by the end of

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1 Comment on Dynamics Of A ‘Never-Ending Stock Melt-Up’

Fed Fails To Curb History’s Most Aggressive US Spending Recovery

February 23, 2024February 25, 2024

The Fed has a narrative. They have a lot of narratives, actually. But an oft-repeated

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1 Comment on Fed Fails To Curb History’s Most Aggressive US Spending Recovery

What Xi Jinping Can Learn From The Fed

February 23, 2024March 4, 2024

At some point this week, Nomura apparently cautioned those keen to pick the low in

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1 Comment on What Xi Jinping Can Learn From The Fed

Money Fund AUM Slips Second Week As Great MMF Debate Continues

February 22, 2024February 22, 2024

This week’s money market fund flows update was mostly uneventful, although it was notable for

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Don’t Short A Bubble Exhibit 275 Billion

February 22, 2024March 4, 2024

I don’t want to pile insult atop injury for the earnest skeptics and well-meaning bubble

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9 Comments on Don’t Short A Bubble Exhibit 275 Billion

In US Housing: Signs Of A Thaw Or False Dawn?

February 22, 2024February 23, 2024

Cue a procession of angels: US existing home sales notched a meaningful gain for the

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15 Comments on In US Housing: Signs Of A Thaw Or False Dawn?

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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