No Rush

As tipped here earlier this week and on several occasions last, Fed rate-cut pricing for 2024 has now effectively converged on the December dot plot. Headed into Wednesday, the market was priced for around 77bps of easing from Jerome Powell and friends this year, not materially different from the last SEP. That might sound unexciting. But it's notable. Notable enough, in fact, that the mainstream financial media found some space for it between stories about Joe Biden's age (he's old), Apple's c

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7 thoughts on “No Rush

    1. I am worried that a very significant portion of those buying bitcoin are doing so, in order to illegally move wealth from the currency where they domicile to USD.
      This flow could be shut down almost overnight by the governmental decree. Having said that, I don’t know why the US Treasury would want to stop that flow of wealth into the US, they might just want to “tax” that flow into USD.

      1. SeaTurtle – Indeed. That’s why the PRC has tried to crack down on cyber purchases. Might the flows reverse when Trump returns to power?

        This morning I pondered why so many US politicians seek to shield the two best tools for cybercriminals, Crypto and now AI, from scrutiny and regulation. The SEC is the only agency that seems to foresee possible dangers from AI. Apparently they are doing info sweeps on AI use by investment managers.

  1. Interesting note. First, a leftover thought from the last thread. Every public thinker deserves to be read … Marko, Mike, Larry Summers, whomever. The thoughts of these folks represent the space that defines what is possible and a rationale for that space. Even if sometimes misguided, that space helps us form our own boundaries.

    Econometrics is the word economists use to make them look like they are hard scientists. The first graduate econ course I took was basic econometrics. I’ll never forget the first day of class. The prof had full control of the room we used and every square foot of wall space was covered with yards and yards of those huge sheets of green-bar printer output so common back then. It soared up to the ceiling, covered with complex looking graphs which I never did completely understand. Initially, they scared me to death. Gradually they became simply annoying. It turns out those graphs were also ironic because for the next four quarters it turned out that my teaching assignment was to get hundreds of students through the required UG stat course. Of course, in that course I was busy telling them that forecasting was essentially futile, among other things. BTW, I did get an A in econometrics and never figured out how and I aced the comp question for the course on the MBA qualifying exam. Today, I suddenly wondered if perhaps the prof hung all that paper as a bit of a joke.

    One other epiphany for the day. I was looking at the last chart in this post and it suddenly occurred to me how much visual similarity there is between the charts thrust upon us by the wizards of technical analysis and those arising from the pseudo-scientific genius of econometricians. Too much magic.

  2. Just read your 2017 piece on “spirals.” I got there via Einhorn Dealmaker article. I wonder where we are in the spiral…I hesitate to say “upward spiral” b/c I associate that w/ spiritual growth (borrowed and adapted from Black Elk Speaks).

    Government’s pandemic response was clearly necessary (to a point) and consistent w/ the “pacts.” But it also altered understandings of “risk” and life (YOLO). If each bubble-burst leads to higher prices followed by a bigger bust (“spiral”), the next one will be heart-stopping.

NEWSROOM crewneck & prints