US home prices are rising at the briskest annual rate since November of 2022 and consumer confidence is fading.

That’s the short version of Tuesday’s notable macro releases out of the world’s largest economy. Frankly, the short version’s the only version you ever need. But, every data point must be parsed, a rote exercise that begins and ends with comparisons to “consensus.” Consensus of course represents the collective wisdom of economists.

That wisdom said home prices, as measured by the gold standard S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City gauge, should’ve risen 6.1% in December. Guess what? Consensus nailed it this time. The benchmark did indeed rise 6.1%. Go find an economist and hug them. (I’m just kidding. That’s assault.)

December’s 12-month increase was the most pronounced in over a year. Prices have now notched six consecutive YoY gains after a very brief run of shallow declines.

The national gauge posted a 5.5% increase for December. “Looking back at the year, 2023 appears to have exceeded average annual home price gains over the past 35 years,” Brian Luke, head of commodities, real & digital assets at Dow Jones said Tuesday, adding that “with trend growth at the national level of 4.7%, a 5.5% return demonstrates solid, steady growth.”

Yes, “solid, steady growth” on top of record high prices and elevated mortgage rates, which means countless American families are “solidly” priced out of the market. Ongoing, above-trend gains could also translate into “steady” shelter inflation, frustrating the Fed’s efforts to get a handle on above-target price growth. (I know, I know: “They should’ve thought about that before they went on an MBS buying spree.” You can spare me the cheap Fed jokes. I’ve told them more times than you’ve thought of them.)

Meanwhile, FHFA’s gauge rose 6.6% YoY in December and 6.5% for Q4 versus Q4 of 2022, according to Tuesday’s government update. “US house prices increased modestly over the course of 2023,” Anju Vajja, acting deputy director for the FHFA’s research and statistics division remarked. “However, the market showed signs of softening as house price appreciation was lower in the fourth quarter than in the previous quarter.”

Again, whether that’s all good news depends entirely upon your lot (figuratively and literally). If you own a home, you’re excited. If you don’t, you’re suicidal. Not really, I hope, but you get the point. New records for property prices are like new all-time highs for stocks: Relevant only to those who own real estate and equities.

Turning quickly to consumer confidence, the Conference Board headline missed badly, printing 106.7 versus 115 expected. It was the first decline since October.

Do note: January’s headline was revised meaningfully lower to 110.9 from 114.8. As the color accompanying Tuesday’s release put it, “the data now suggest there was not a material breakout to the upside in confidence at the start of 2024.” (Oops.)

Both the present situation and expectations indexes slipped, with the latter now back below the 80 threshold which typically points to recession within a year. The labor differential fell to 27.8 from 31.7.

“The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy,” Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson said, adding that “the drop was broad-based, affecting all income groups except households earning less than $15,000 and those earning more than $125,000.”

In other words, confidence waned for everyone except the well-to-do and the people who are so poor that it doesn’t matter anyway.