‘The Humans Are Still Bearish,’ But Less So
"The humans are still bearish but a lot less bearish than in Q4," BofA's Michael Hartnett said Tuesday, in the January vintage of the bank's closely watched Global Fund Manager survey.
Recession expectations among panelists peaked two months ago at 77%, and have since receded a bit. Historically, peak recession worry marked "turning points in asset prices," Hartnett remarked.
Speaking of inflections, more investors now believe short-term rates will be lower in 12 months than those who see high
In my completely unprofessional and ill formed opinion, inflation may continue to challenge the resolve of central bankers, because of energy. Europe managed to solve its energy needs for this winter, not the next. China has been shut down, no more. There is still the circumstance of underinvestment in energy production of the previous decades that were setting up a bull market for the energy sectors irregardless of the war.
Anecdotally, in the 2001 and 2008 bear markets, investors from a certain online community (that I can read old posts from) were basically completely broken, begging for mercy, and many of whom declaring they would cease investing. So far in the 2022 bear market the same pool of people are unscathed and still in a risk taking mood. So, I don’t know. Maybe this time is different and we get off lightly.
I can’t recall – exactly what does “cash” mean in the FMS? Does it mean just bank deposits and money markets? Money is flowing to T-bills.