There’s A Wrench In Goldman’s Profit Machine

Goldman missed on the top line and reported a $778 million pretax loss in its newly constituted “Platform Solutions” segment, Q4 results released on Tuesday showed.

Any drama that might’ve accompanied the first quarterly report compiled using the “new” corporate structure was preemptively muted. In a filing last week, Goldman broke out results for the reconstituted segments going back several quarters, and also included full-year results for the new structure going back to 2020.

Including Q4’s results, Platform Solutions’ pretax loss for all of 2022 was almost $2 billion, consistent with media reports in and around last week’s disclosure of prior quarters’ losses.

Although revenue in the segment rose sharply on higher card balances, the corollary was higher provisions. QoQ, the provision for credit losses in the unit jumped almost 70%. That figure was 173% YoY.

I think it’s fair to say investors aren’t enamored with that situation. The escalating losses are a drag, many believe Goldman is out of its wheelhouse in some of the associated businesses and the rumored time line on profitability in the segment isn’t especially auspicious.

Elsewhere, trading results were ok. FICC revenue rose 44% YoY to $2.69 billion, a decent beat.

Equities revenue of $2.07 billion reflected a 5% YoY drop, and was a slight miss to consensus.

Invariably, the media narrative will be something about trading results softening the blow from Platform Solutions and the well-documented dealmaking malaise plaguing Wall Street. I suppose that spin is as accurate as any other.

The IB specifics at Goldman reflected the Street-wide trend. IB revenue of $1.87 billion was actually a beat, but represented a 48% dropoff versus Q4 2021.

Advisory was decent, but debt and equity underwriting plummeted 70% and 82%, respectively. Goldman’s backlog decreased “significantly” compared to 2021, the bank said.

Asset and wealth management revenues dropped 27% YoY and 12% sequentially. Goldman cited “significantly lower net gains from investments in private equities” and “net mark-downs compared with net mark-ups” in debt investments.

The firm took a $972 million provision, up sharply both from the prior year and the prior quarter. Part of that is the credit card portfolio. Notwithstanding recent layoffs, headcount grew 10% last year due mostly to acquisitions including GreenSky. Again, I’m not sure investors will be enamored with that. GreenSky is the installment-lending firm Goldman bought in September of 2021. It lives in Platform Solutions.

Net revenue of $10.6 billion for Q4 fell 16% YoY and 12% sequentially. It also missed estimates. The Street wanted $10.7 billion. EPS was $3.32. When juxtaposed with an 11% increase in expenses, the optics around the drop in revenue were especially challenging, and might suggest more job cuts. ROE was below the bank’s target for 2022.

Bottom line: I doubt anyone is going to jump up and cheer these numbers. David Solomon will be under pressure to turn Platform Solutions around and, more generally, to explain (for the umpteenth time) why Goldman veered away from its core businesses in the first place.

“Our clear, near-term focus is realizing the benefits of our strategic realignment which will strengthen our core businesses, scale our growth platforms and improve efficiency,” he said Tuesday. “The foundation of all of our strategic efforts is our client franchise which is second to none.”


 

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3 thoughts on “There’s A Wrench In Goldman’s Profit Machine

  1. Back in the day (for me, the late 60s and early 70s), my favorite CEO was Charles Bluhdorn, founder of Gulf&Western. This firm was my favorite conglomerate, when such firms were “it.” It still survives as Paramount and some publishing interests. The trouble with GW was that no one seemed to understand what the boss was doing so the P/E ran mostly around 5-6x. This was a crazy good company for a few years and I made a bunch of money in it, especially after the CEO’s untimely demise and a significant restructuring. These days I am intrigued by Goldman. There are a bunch of smart people hanging out in that place but as this recap of the quarter shows, there are a lot of moving parts in this firm and it’s very hard to predict where most of them are going. For me this one is a lot like GW of old, sort of like one of those frosted glass bathroom windows.

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