Nomura’s McElligott On ‘Doomsday Prepping’ And The Underpriced ‘Risk’ Of No Chaos

Nomura’s McElligott On ‘Doomsday Prepping’ And The Underpriced ‘Risk’ Of No Chaos

Assuming no black swans come splashing down in the macro lake, equities may be somewhat insulated from dramatic swings in the weeks leading up to what most expect will be an epoch-making US election. That's according to Nomura's Charlie McElligott who, in a Tuesday note, writes that realized vol. may remain "stuck in no man's land" as dealers are "incentivized from both P&L and risk management perspectives to be 'long vol, long gamma'". This setup could serve to "keep things in check" he n
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3 thoughts on “Nomura’s McElligott On ‘Doomsday Prepping’ And The Underpriced ‘Risk’ Of No Chaos

  1. This is what makes a market. I certainly rethought my shorts and my future short intentions. Exciting stuff from an investment point of view, but the current president’s undermining the postal vote and democratic principles, including transfer of power, are serious cause for concern and an embarrassment to all of us who believe in democracy as a good system of government

  2. There seem to be 2 issues here. Is there genuine uncertainty on the result or is there the idea that Trump would be able to thwart the result by playing the “fraud” card. The first one is possible, the second one is fantasy–US institutions are too strong for that. As for the first one, lets recall that there are only a handful of states that matter on this score as most states whether red or blue can be called on election night. For challenges to occur on the results these other states have to be inside of 0.5% difference. How many will actually be that close? Its hard to say. The ironies of ironies would be if Trump won and the Democrats played the fraud card.

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