Crazy Times, Brave Vol Traders, And The ‘God Forbidden Realization Of Chaos’

Crazy Times, Brave Vol Traders, And The ‘God Forbidden Realization Of Chaos’

Crazy times On Tuesday, after a half hour search finally turned up my missing envelopes (in the kitchen drawer, of course), I slung my Citynews messenger and took a stroll down to the post office. It's cool here now. There were days last month when walking any distance was an intolerably sweltering slog. If past is precedent, there won't be many more scorching days this year -- October here tends to bring temperatures so agreeable to the human condition that being outside is experiential perfe
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9 thoughts on “Crazy Times, Brave Vol Traders, And The ‘God Forbidden Realization Of Chaos’

  1. A well written column by David Brooks on September 3, in the NYT titled “What will you do if Trump doesn’t leave.” Is a good read and follow on to this article.

  2. It would be ironic indeed if the election was not that close and the results were known pretty quickly. It is a distinct possibility – in fact at this point it is a probability in my view. Despite all kinds of voter suppression attempts, my sources tell me that early voting turnout is high, and it is not in the Trump demographic particularly. High voter turnout favors Democrats generally. Also, Trump is pretty well behind in both head to head polling and approval ratings- never a good sign. Generally, incumbents do poorly in their first debate with the challenger. I expect this time will be no different. If that is the case, Trump will have a little over a month to turn it around. The market is expecting a contested election. I do not. If that is the case, the entire Supreme Court being right of center will not matter. This has many parallels to the 1932 general election in the USA. At that time, if you read history, nobody expected Roosevelt to be a change President. Nobody expects that of Biden either. I think folks will be surprised if he pulls off a large win. Change is in the air. The appointment by Trump of another justice and a rushed confirmation in the Senate will damage the Court and the sitting justices will have to be careful to not damage the institution of the court- I expect the court to move less to the right than people think as a result. If abortion is restricted there is going to be tremendous blowback. Likewise for the Affordable Care Act. Roberts is well aware of this fact and is keenly aware of his legacy being at risk.

    1. Great observations, largely I agree. The fact that the street’s consensus (both wall and main) is to expect a protracted period of post-election day uncertainty makes me seriously consider the alternative view, that we will know by Nov 3rd or soon after. Clearly anything is possible in our current political environment but I believe if Biden emerges as a clear winner early a lot of rats will jump ship fast on the GOP side, quick to place some distance between their political careers and a sinking administration. As Charlie notes, there is a contrarian trade here, risky indeed but with a juicy potential return.

    2. FDR came of age during and was shaped by the progressive era. Biden, more like the opposite. Also, I’d argue that without FDR’s personal misfortune of suffering through and mentally overcoming the adversity of polio for a decade prior to his rise to power, he would not likely have had the empathy that was his most crucial quality, and would not have had the courage to turn against his class. Making these comparisons, against all available evidence, looks like wishful thinking to me.

      1. Biden grew up with a disability as a stutterer. He lost his first wife and daughter in a car accident when he was in his late 20s. He lost his son, a rising political star several years ago to terminal brain cancer. Biden has his flaws but lack of a challenging life and empathy is certainly not one of them. He is being underestimated- and he reflects the center of the party- the party has moved left- so has he. He sees his mission to get things back to some kind of normal and repair some of the damage and unify his party and the country. So far he seems to be doing fine. One of his big flaws is hoof in mouth disease- and so far that has happened few times. See how frustrated Trump is getting? Nothing is sticking right now- and part of it is that Biden is playing a smart tennis match and making few unforced errors. Same with Kamala Harris….

        1. totally agree.
          If there is one person in Washington comparable to FDR in terms of empathy built through personal suffering it’s Joe Biden.
          I also would not underestimate his potential to be a change president.
          First of all, he certainly knows that given his age he will most probably be a one-term president (IF he’s elected, that is), meaning he won’t be loosing much time.
          Secondly, as you stated correctly, the entire Democratic party has moved to the left, including the candidate. If (again, IF) he’s elected, his cabinet will most certainly reflect that.

        2. I’m aware of the tragedies he’s gone through in his family life, and I of course hope you are right. The world should hope you are right. But I have yet to see it reflected in policy positions, communications, or personnel. And as such the “change-agent” ask right now is mostly faith based, similar to 2008 but even more so. Fine if it works as a strategy. The difference is Biden is not a young and charismatic Obama, a representation of change, with a strategy that welcomed people to project their hopes and dreams onto him, however contradictory those desires may have been to his own rather conventional views. To see if such a strategy has promise in 2020, one could review evidence like the African American Research Collaborative Poll that was published today in 538 (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-partisan-gender-and-generational-differences-among-black-voters-heading-into-election-day/). 79% of Black voters under 30 believe Trump is a racist, and yet only 29% are definitely motivated to vote, and only 49% say the Democratic party is welcoming to Black Americans. I think these young Americans know very well the country they are living in. And it’s not as if they are politically apathetic; they are ones animating the historic protests. Democrats could ask condescendingly why these Americans don’t any longer have blind faith in them, or alternatively, they and their leader could do some actual self reflection and ask themselves why they haven’t given them any good reason to.

  3. And folks in my old hometown Still ask why my family and farms relocated to Chile/Ecuador starting 2016.

    It doesn’t take a genius to predict chaos.
    I like a country that has 4 major political parties.

  4. This post had me googling the best US islands to move to. H you’ve been saying trump wouldn’t leave long before anyone in the media and now here we are. Ria you’ve been right before, I hope to god you are right again.

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