Deutsche’s Kocic Flags ‘Fear Of Massive Risk-Off Trade’ Amid Unprecedented Political Entropy

Deutsche’s Kocic Flags ‘Fear Of Massive Risk-Off Trade’ Amid Unprecedented Political Entropy

Earlier this month, while appraising the twisted, smoldering heap of institutions, norms, and principles that not so long ago constituted the scaffolding of America's democracy, I noted that for market participants, the one thing that seems certain is that nothing is certain. We are just weeks away from what is almost sure to be a contested election outcome, presaging, at best, months of litigation. At worst, a disputed result could entail an effort to delegitimize the vote or nullify it altoge
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15 thoughts on “Deutsche’s Kocic Flags ‘Fear Of Massive Risk-Off Trade’ Amid Unprecedented Political Entropy

  1. In addition to Trump’s assault on democracy, his actions against the rule of law and the right of parties to enforce a legal lease are very unsettling because if the government can override a legal right to collect rent, what is next?

    I am certainly not in favor of evicting anyone who is not able to pay their rent and putting them out on the street, however, when did this become a burden that landlords are expected to shoulder instead of putting that burden on the public, as a whole?

    Even though the moratorium does not erase the debt of past due rent, given that the moratorium will have been in effect for about 10 months as of December 31, 2020, it is unrealistic to think that tenants who could not pay their rent during the moratorium will suddenly be able to pay past due rents.

  2. It seems a contested election is the accepted dominan consensust theory out there. I would bet that Trump is going to lose in a blowout- his polling is terrible and did not get a bounce from the convention. If he does not get reasonably close in the next couple of weeks, he is going to desperately need a win in his first debate. Sitting Presidents often do not do well in the first debate with a challenger. It could really go south for Trump and the GOP come this fall…..Wall Street is going to whiff on this one is my guess….

  3. Welcome to a POPULIST country.

    Over the last two+ years, Trump and the whole right wing loved to point at Venezuela as an example of what will happen if the “socialists” win power.

    Think about that in the context of Emptynester’s post above.

    That measure is pure populism and probably would not have been out of place in “socialist” Caracas.

    Nor would be the attacks on US companies who “Create jobs” in China.

    The stock market once was called the Great Discounter or something like that. In recent times that market does not respond to the obvious until any widely-anticipated negative actually hits. Probably thanks to all of those price-momentum and volatility-driven trading models now dominating the market.

    1. I believe you are right on point comparing Trump’s populist tactics with those Venezuelans experienced during the Chavez/Maduro regimes. The tools of autocrats and demagogues are similar regardless of whether they claim to adhere to a left or right wing ideology. I have many family members in Venezuela and some that now live in the US, they have fully bought into the propaganda narrative that Biden is a socialist trojan horse without realizing the obvious, Trump is undermining democratic institutions, ignoring the rule of law, creating a cult of personality and blaming all misfortunes in others while demeaning the opposition. This was exactly Hugo Chavez’s playbook and it has been the blue print for autocrats for ages, sad to see the US succumb to it.

  4. I think this election might be the lowest turnout ever.

    Where is a nice moderate candidate, with a sense of morality and a vision for America and its global role that does not pander to the religious right nor do they want to defund the police?
    I have read that approx. 40% of Americans consider theirselves “independent”.
    Fiscally responsible and socially liberal.

    Middle ground, anyone?

    1. Umm, Biden does not want to defund the police. Politicians do not come much more moderate than Biden. Which is why progressives have not endorsed his candidacy with anything approaching energetic support.

      Incidentally, I do enjoy your comments, in spite of your repetition of demonstrably false Republican talking points.

    2. I think this is going to be the highest turnout election in a long time. Trump is whipping up his base, they’ll all show up. And the Republicans are making a big mistake thinking there’s an “enthusiasm gap.” It’s true, many (most?) Democrats aren’t excited about Biden – but they are VERY excited to vote against Trump. I’m also expecting an unusually high turnout by the Zoomers (18-24). Those kids are smart, they’ve been paying attention (how could they not?) and man are they pissed off!

  5. Well, there is a candidate who fits your description.
    He’s been titulated a “beltway wall fixture” once or twice in these pages 😉
    Let’s hope that “middle ground” will be attractive to enough Americsns come November

    1. Yeah, I mean, Joe Biden is the literal definition of “nice, moderate candidate”. There is nothing (nothing) “radical” about Joe Biden and he is the consummate establishment politician.

      It’s amusing that so many people claim to not believe Trump’s rhetoric and yet many of those people clearly do believe at least some of it. This is in part why some worry we’re already too far down the road to authoritarianism. There’s a very real sense in which many Americans who disavow him have subconsciously accepted a lot of his talking points, despite almost all of them being blatantly, demonstrably untrue. His rhetoric about Biden is all false. Every last bit of it as far as I’ve heard. That doesn’t mean you “should” love Joe Biden. But it certainly means that you shouldn’t form your opinion of him based on anything Donald Trump (or Fox News) says.

  6. I actually agree that Joe, on his own, is a nice moderate candidate.
    My concern is this- Does he have the backbone, capabilities, vision and support to stay moderate and not get “steam rolled” ?

    1. Steamrolled by…? The anarchist left? Radical left? City dwelling crime loving liberals?

      I think Heis, Tom, and jamaican have all pointed out the illogical tropes about Biden. Now that you have capitulated, we must speculate as to whether or not this champion of moderation will be too fragile to withstand the Squad and Antifa. All of which are now regular RNC talking points.

      This is supposed to be about macro economics. I think you can tell from these missives that it seeks to cipher out the bologna. It just so happens those serving the slices dominate the side of “probably won’t accept” the results of what was once regarded as the moral standard bearer of democracy.

      Talk macro, or talk big level politics. Don’t come in with party talking points. It sullies the mutual respect.

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