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Equations

August payrolls, due Friday, could mark the last of the "easy" jobs reports, and thereby the last chance for The White House to claim the recovery is continuing apace. Consensus is expecting another big gain. The market will be looking for 1.4 million on the headline, and a sub-10% print on the unemployment rate. It would mark the first time the jobless rate has fallen below 10% since the onset of the pandemic. For context, the US labor market would still be less than halfway to pre-pandemic employment even if the August report manages to meet estimates. The pink bar and figure in the chart (below) assume an in-line print for August. Close attention will be paid to fresh reads on permanent and temporary employment. Earlier this month, Goldman estimated that around 25% of those currently on "temporary" layoffs would become permanent job losers in the coronavirus recession. The number of Americans unemployed for 15 weeks or longer is close to topping its GFC high, and as a percentage of the total jobless, those unemployed for 15-26 weeks sits at nearly 40%. Still, if the "official" unemployment rate falls below 10%, it will give the administration another talking point, eve
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2 comments on “Equations

  1. Very nice dashboard article.

  2. Vlad is Mad says:

    Simple Simon says low rates forever, AIT (unspecified) lower real yields, surging breaks, lots of cash in money markets, allocations out of bonds into either cash or stocks or gold just is the only fundamental that anyone needs to look out. Oh, by the way, apparently the fiscal policy addition is not important cause it gets dealt with at CRM as Pelosi outmaneuvers the GOP. Did I miss anything?

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