economy Markets politics

Stalemates And Stagflation

"I don’t know", Nancy Pelosi said Thursday, asked when she might sit down again with Steve Mnuchin to resume talks around a new virus relief package for the US economy. "When they come in with $2 trillion", she added, alluding to a compromise figure Democrats have billed as a "halfway" point between the two sides. The idea of the talks extending into September and becoming entangled with wider discussions around government funding should be a non-starter for both sides. But it's at least possible that The White House is rolling the dice on the economy and stock market effectively bridging the gap between what Democrats insist is necessary and what Republicans are prepared to offer. Mnuchin confirmed that Pelosi and Chuck Schumer have refused to meet unless the administration pre-commits to a proposal of "at least $2 trillion". Trump this week said "no one in their right mind would approve" Pelosi's plan. It wasn't clear if anyone had informed the president, but some contend the current occupant of the Oval Office is not, in fact, in his "right mind", so perhaps the deal has a chance after all. Jokes aside, it is now eminently possible that each passing day which sees US equit
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13 comments on “Stalemates And Stagflation

  1. Nick Langman says:

    Cap ages of congressmen (and women) and senators to 65 years old. Ensure they have an education that is beyond a crap law degree at a peripheral university. Ensure they have at least 10/15 years experience in the private sector.

  2. joesailboat says:

    Ships sink slowly till the end then anything nearby gets sucked down with them.
    If Bears are wondering why some of us put money in this market the last 5 months this is why. Not for now.

  3. JimmyBoy says:

    Btw, what is the inflation hedge? TIPS? I re-bought Gold and Silver after the trend reversal ended up being a one day affair. But, then, I also remember that when the markets were crashing, Gold sold off with everything else.

  4. Anaximander says:

    The writing may be on the wall that the GOP old guard has finally decided to cut the rope to an unsalvageable sinking ship, turn against Trump who they never wanted, and reclaim their old position as deficit hawks. Such a strategy hinges entirely on maintaining control of the Senate. These stimulus talks increasingly appear to have less to do w the current crisis, and more to do with mail in voting, which is an existential issue for the GOP. For once, the Dems may be playing hardball to ensure they vanquish a President they consider to be the most dangerous in modern history. They may be willing to sacrifice the suffering in the process, which would hardly be out of character for them. This is a high stakes gambit.

    • Anaximander says:

      I should add that saddling a weak Democratic administration with a depression, while stonewalling fiscal spending in the Senate, would hardly be a bad political strategy in the Machiavellian sense, if the GOP focus in on gaining more power in 4 years. The FED will protect their real base. Essentially it’s the same strategy they played for 6 years under Obama.

    • Mr. Lucky says:

      Why not make the “sacrifice?” Like generals who send our children off to get killed in needless wars, it’s no sacrifice to any of the “old Guard” personally. They have immunized themselves in advance.

  5. Ria says:

    The issue is Mark Meadows. When Mnuchin was negotiating himself things went swimmingly for compromise when negotiating with the Democrats. This was something that Trump and the malevolent faction in the White House could not stand. So they sent Meadows for this round of negotiation along with Mnuchin. Meadows had never been a crafter of legislation in the House. He was a destructive force as part of the “Freedom” caucus/Tea Party faction, help to destroy a Republican Speaker, and basically nuked lots of compromise/ possible legislation during his time there. As long as Meadows is front and center for the White House, nothing is going to get done. Of course this is overplaying the White House’s hand. They are 80 ish days from the election and as things get closer you can bet that Trump will want aid- and will probably get a “worse” deal than he wanted. The great deal maker is in fact a lousy negotiator when the other side has ammo – he only wins when he has a decided advantage and can bully the other side. This is not one of those times. Pelosi is an extremely savy politician. I put my chips on her.

  6. brc says:

    “If there were listed puts for American empire, now would be a good time to buy-to-open”… couldn’t agree more. But shorting, even with puts, has been a tough tough tree to climb. Others might say, “Never short America…” But when the total equity value of the U.S. markets exceeds the total value of the world’s GDPs, one has to wonder how much further this can go. Yea, I have heard all the arguments of why the Feds are pushing investors to go far out on the increasingly fragile limbs of the market. But fragile those limbs are, and I rather be safe as opposed to grabbing the last leaf off that limb. Over the last week, I have divested of “safe” trades — gold, silver, municipals, utilities, long-term treasuries, the short-term rise of the dollar from the lows… I rather wait for new growth. I am happy to watch the Robinhood traders learn the hard lessons that I have learned over a much longer life. Maybe I’ll wait until next spring to start climbing that tree again… But I will sleep well waiting..

  7. Anonymous says:

    Bruce chase,

    Spot on. Don’t have to swing at every pitch. The ability to wait for a good risk reward is what investing is all about imo.

    Good luck, stay wise, stay healthy and invest well.

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