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Don’t Be So ‘Sensitive’: How Much Will The Data Matter For Markets In 2020?
If there's one message Jerome Powell has tried to drive home over the last two policy meetings, it's that inflation would have to rise sharply in order to put rate hikes back on the table.
The Fed's favorite catchphrases since October are "good place" and "remain appropriate", each meant to convey a predisposition to hold rates steady, barring developments that would force a "material reassessment" of the outlook.
But the underlying message is that the reaction function is asymmetric. The bar
Given its track record on rates, this sets up a scenario where the Fed ignores a couple hot reads on inflation (perhaps due to ongoing liquidity non-concerns), and then suddenly they are chasing a trend. That wouldn’t be my prediction, but I can’t rule it out.
What is inflation anymore? The CB’s of the DC’s are all intent on pushing it up a bit, but nothing seems to work. Maybe that’s because something significant has changed in the major countries/trading blocks. It might be the rise of globalism and multinationals. Seems to me the kind of inflation that CB’s worry about is debasement of a countries currency such as Germany post WW1. With major global currencies (China, Japan, US and EU) all linked together via FX markets and global trade, they appear anchored in a global net where no one currency can be devalued too much. Just a thought. I’d be interested to know what others think.
I think the chase for inflation has at least some roots in managing existing national debt levels. If we get disinflation with our already nearly unmanageable debt levels, then the gig may be up, but these big picture things may be above my pay level.