US, China Engineer Massive Yuan Rally, Stock Surge, But Fed Outlook Still Cloudy
The cross-asset reaction to the latest tariff news was dramatic.
The USTR's decision to delay the imposition of duties on some key items until December 15 suggests the Trump administration is at least aware of the possibility that the next round of tariffs could seriously dent the outlook for the US economy at a time when growth is already slowing as the fiscal impulse wanes.
Risk asset performance since August 1 (when Trump tweeted the latest threat) reflects palpable jitters and China's resp
The SEC should be watching for insider trading around these Administration flip-flops and tweets.
How could anyone know in advance what Trump is going to tweet?
My guess is as good as any traders would be.
This was easily predictable…..Trump sees the Market tank and backs off on his trade demands.
His idea of the economy has become Market performance, since that is what he is likely to run on. Two ways he can stimulate the Market……either pressure the Fed to lower rates or make trade concessions……and I think he is beginning to realize that trade policy has more impact than lower rates.
For trump to run on market performance, he’ll have to literally pull off a highly manipulated miracle of un-Godly proportions! He’s lagging Obama performance by a Yuge amount and with a very fragile global economic situation, it seems highly likely that trump will have to lie as never before to convince his drooling idiot followers that their bank accounts are better than they were 4 years ago.
Administration insiders know. The USTR lists of what products are tariff’ed in Sep vs Dec weren’t created overnight.
I moved all of my 401(k) to self-directed IRAs years ago. I got tired of playing that “one day your pants are up, next day somebody’s taking a dump in your pants when they’re down game.”
A big driver in this game re-set, is the fact that VIX was 21.00 @ opening and 10 yr @ 1.68%, thus, fear was about to explode in a bad way, and instead of a Yuge 400 pt pop, we might have gone down Yuge, like 1000+ Plus, trump gets to make a nice gain with his hedge fund …
Time will probably prove me wrong but I got out of an overwhelming majority of equities and gold today while my pants were up. I am happy not to participate in this freak show for the time being. Self directed IRA huh? Time for me to give that some consideration again.