Win, Lose Or ‘Pause’: Waterboarding History
At this point, it would be entirely fair to say that analysts, pundits and market participants of all stripes are beating a dead horse when it comes to torturing history in hopes of extracting some kind of meaningful signals about "what happens" to various assets following curve inversions and dovish Fed pivots.
If history hasn't "talked" by now, it's probably safe to say that continuing to waterboard, starve and pull the fingernails from previous cycles isn't likely to deliver the "goods", as
Not to be redundant here but it is impossible to out think this market because it is not in a realm of reason….History can fill pages with ink to no avail…and no real solution.. H…..you said literally that in the first two paragraphs.. OK so why ? I postulate that the market is in a state of capitulation to asset prices and the financial regulatory system is lock step in the same mode. Why.??..another complex question and best guess here is mere conjecture. It could be Governments need to stay in power and are a mere half step ahead of populist movements armed with cubs and pitchforks.
It could also be that Governments and Big Business have managed to squeeze out their equal partner labor (by design) and managed to overload the world with debt in favor of their own best interests. I mean pretty much all governments by the way. So now what …..Simply promise everything and really give nothing …easily done by moving the goalposts randomly and playing ‘three cymbals and a peanut..Do it invoking the work Democracy and make sure there are lots of entertaining apps on Social media and the Boob Tube…
End result….speculative of course…Newton’s law prevails…”what goes up must come down” In addition I think the age of Geopolitical change will tilt the tables a bit….Timing is the enigma on all of this.
a beautiful summation of goldman. thank you. seeking alpha is full of so many prognostications that I could not separate the entrails from the offal.
Are we maybe Japan around 20 years ago?
Or maybe the US around 1937?