Marko Kolanovic Delivers 2019 Outlook And It Is Quite Something…
Ok, sports fans, the Street's most celebrated analyst is out with his 2019 outlook and for those of you who are reasonably constructive on equities headed into the new year, there's a lot to like.
The bottom line is that JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is headed into 2019 long equities and underweight bonds. He sees S&P EPS growth running at 8% in the new year and his S&P target is 3,100.
The economic rationale is straightforward. "We base our market outlook on the view that the business cy
I think someone twisted his arm to press the bullish case…and 2 he’s talking about zh, as they went political about 3 yrs ago and are majority inflammatory political stories.
AVW, c’mon man, ZH has been political for far longer than three years! I got banned TWICE for comparing ZH to ‘What Really Happened’ and that was far away longer than three years ago. I mean they run the same stories. They both are nothing but a portal for losers that can’t even play video games for lack of attention span. I believe the originator of ZH every once and awhile writes something about bonds (with few commenters) otherwise it’s all designed to feed whack-jobs and ghouls their daily offal.
How does that square iwith Nomura’s take on “Risk Parity model having added enormous notational size in Global Govt bonds over the past month, against a very large selling of global equities & credit”.
Does not bode well for Marko.
“I can’t go short if you don’t go long!”, said the balrog to Gandalf.
Weird market moves, populism. Same roots: misinformation.
Issue not easy to solve in a democracy. Who decides what is misinformation or quality info?
I perfectly understand what Marko says, it’s in front of me every day in forums, blogs, twitter. Should we ban Twitter, close the blogs? Really, not easy. Eternal problem of democracy. We have to let even idiots speak.
That‘s true, Franceska, we habe to let the idiots speak. But how do we keep them from dominating the discourse?
That is a problem many western developed countries will have to find an answer to – and better fast.
add.:
banning Twitter would probably only make things worse – lots of self-styled martyrs of free speech to be expected
I wouldn’t worry about a few loud mouthed pols – wait until the next global recession. Marko might have to brush-up on proletariat revolutions.
In the interim, if you spooz you lose.
So now that the market is going down when Marko has been repeatedly banging on the bullish drum, well, it must be because of fake news’ influences on the market?! Come on. Those news sources have been around forever and they didn’t seem to be a problem to Marko until now.
Lots of comments on this one…..Marko is like the rest of us, aiming at a moving target as the rules change simultaneously. It is easy to loose your focus momentarily!! He presumes at times that a strong economy exists ,yet it can’t seem to tolerate even 3% short term rates. Stealth inflation and corporate Shenanigans (product downsizing and sneaky price increases) have increased wealth disparities in the the consumer class so keeping the distorted market s going gets to get more complicated in the future.
Am more likely to buy into Nomura’s (Charlie) views at this point in time..
George
“Though markets are generally rational, they occasionally do crazy things. Seizing the opportunities then offered does not require
great intelligence, a degree in economics or a familiarity with Wall Street jargon, such as alpha and beta. What investors then need instead, is an ability to both disregard mob fears or enthusiasms and to focus on a few simple fundamentals. A willingness to look unimaginative for a sustained period — or even to look foolish — is also essential.” – WB
Well, he predicted 3,000 for year-end 2018, so who knows?
Maybe soon we will get a trader’s take on how to unify gravity with the other three fundamental forces…
Marko’s interesting take on year end 2019 S&P at 3000 is plausible. US, China, EU, Japan, EM will work hard on delaying a recession for the obvious reasons, which means governments will work on finding real or ‘fake’ agreements while CB will work on a delicate interest rate dance based on a longer run-way (say 16-18 months from now) If that were to be the case, interest rates will rise not too little and not too much for 18 months (+/-) at which time they will reach their peak and begin to be clawed back. If Marko is correct and we see 3000 in Dec. 2019, we will begin to see the signs of a recession in mid to late 2020. Until then plenty of time to be in the market which will remain highly volatile, with broad swings in both directions and provide both value, growth and everything in between. Reason would have us remain cautious, on the sidelines with large cash positions or in more secure investments. How is it that the market hardly ever rewards reason?
Marko used to cause a spike on his bullish headlines after being correctly bearish last time around. Trouble is, he is at JPM and they almost always try to calm the markets during a crash — like in 29…
Well, 3000 didn’t quite work out……