The ‘Pain Trade’: A Simple Way To Determine Who’s Holding The Stronger Hand
In light of recent events, economists, analysts and a parade of pundits have bent over backwards to try and determine who has the better bargaining position in the increasingly tense standoff between the U.S. and China on trade.
To be sure, there are any number of ways to go about deciding who's holding the stronger hand and if you ask Wilbur Ross, Peter Navarro and of course Donald Trump, the answer is the same: America, of course.
"If it really does get to be a big war, we have many more bul
Wellllllllll…lol.
If we were discussing pure economics/markets, the “US is winning” would be correct.
However…China doesn’t have to satisfy its own investors, they hold a massive amount of US Treasuries they could sell to get the attention of the “safe haven” investors, and they could devalue their currency.
(No one sez they have to be rational.)
I think the US administration will fold at the first sign of significant weakness in the US equity market. We’ve become a nation thoroughly and arrogantly obsessed with paper gains and equity appreciation, at all costs. I mean at all costs. And I use that term arrogance in every sense of the word. Greed begets more greed. Policy compromise with this administration is always due to the relentless drive for self wealth preservation. And why wouldn’t this be the case? Trump has politically surrounded himself with very very wealthy people.
We all know this is more Trumpinian political posturing. There is no MAGA.
It’s going to be just enough Trumpinian posturing to do what he needs to do before the midterms. Satisfy his pre-election commitment. Once he puts the checkbox against trade, the ideologies will be thrown out to the curb, once again. There is no MAGA.
If the motivation behind this circus is too cynical for most, I ask the administration to prove us wrong. Make a commitment to what you are doing and stick to it. There’s absolutely no integrity in this US administration. There is no MAGA.
The NASDAQ is the red light for policy makers. That’s when their wallets get really get hit.
A politicians’ wealth preservation instincts will always outweigh, supersede and dominate their instincts for doing what’s right for this country.
There is no MAGA.
Very good comment, formerly. Exactly my thoughts. If or when (i’m thinking when) the naz falters the shit will hit. What we be precious is the clawing back, with the usual stilt, on how WE won. MAGA my ass.