Trader: ‘Too Many Asset Classes Feel Both Stretched And Crowded’

By Kevin Muir of “The Macro Tourist” fame; reposted here with permission I was rummaging through the Commitment of Traders (COT) data recently and was struck by the number of futures contracts with record speculative positions. Take a gander at the Euro currency net speculative position. And how about the five-year US treasury future? Too many asset classes feel both stretched and crowded. But it’s easy to see why. The Euro has been consistently climbing the wall of worry and ref

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3 thoughts on “Trader: ‘Too Many Asset Classes Feel Both Stretched And Crowded’”

Thx MrH as well

How is this much different than using a bollinger band TA indicator using similar parameter.

IMHO system is likely to fail in the long run for the EURO (although a signficant retracement in EURUSD is overdue and coming).

Thing is, in fact, unlike for the other assets listed above, over the years the large specs have had a damn good record of catching trends in the euro. For example, Euro futures showed large speculators (hedge funds, trend-followers) flipping from net short to net long again some months ago and adding to their long exposure a second week in a row before the EURUSD went on its extended killer run.

That was the first time this group of market participants, in aggregate, held a net long position since May 2014. Three long years holding short, which also turned out to be the correct view. So beware of them.