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“Oil Is The Fed’s Canary”: Is The Fed “Sleepwalking Into A Policy Mistake”?

"...never have forward expectations been so dovish (Chart 4), inflation break-evens been so beaten down, and data surprises been so negative ahead of a Fed hike in this cycle."

"...never have forward expectations been so dovish (Chart 4), inflation break-evens been so beaten down, and data surprises been so negative ahead of a Fed hike in this cycle."
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4 comments on ““Oil Is The Fed’s Canary”: Is The Fed “Sleepwalking Into A Policy Mistake”?

  1. The Fed should give up on trying to create inflation, they are pushing on a string. Instead stick to the mandate, keep inflation low while maximizing employment. So with no problems with high inflation, and 4.3 U3 we need to have regular rates, not emergency giveaways to banks.

  2. Irb Laster

    Fed policy mistake already happened. It kept rates too low for years too long. Should have hiked way more years ago. Before they created the current “everything bubble”. Abolish the Fed and let the market set rates.

  3. Irb Laster

    And what deflation? Look at housing and food prices. And the collapsing US dollar, the weakest & worst currency in the world this year, having already rapidly wiped out 2 years gains (soon to be 3 years lost).

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