Do you know what helps out a whole helluva lot when you’re massively long Japanese equities and when you need a weaker currency to boost your overseas holdings?
Month: March 2017
Ass-Covering Is So Passé: Cost Of Protection Drops To 6 Year Low
I would hope that if you frequent these pages you’ve put on your hedges. Although
“It’s The Reflation Trade, Baby!” These Are The Levels To Watch On Friday
“If two-year Treasury yields close above 1.3% but 10-year yields linger below 2.5%, then a hike is expected but it’s being perceived as a potential policy mistake. If we close above both levels, it’s the reflation trade, baby.”
“I Keep Getting Asked, ‘When Will This End?!'”
“I keep getting asked ‘When will this end?’, which is a very different question than ‘How long can this continue?’ On the one hand it implies that investors are seeing it but can’t quite believe it.”
“All Eyez On Me”: Yellen, Fischer Are Up To Bat
It kind of feels like everyone is ready to get this week on the books.
Key Calls (Friday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
“I’d Tax Every Benz,” “It’s A Corpse That Still Moves”: Are You Getting The Truth On Trade?
“At the same time, tariffs would weigh on US growth. If we assume that Mexico and China retaliate with equivalent tariffs, this would substantially reduce demand for US exports, depressing US GDP by around 0.7pp by 2019. In fact, tariffs would likely hit US GDP so sharply that the Federal Reserve would be prompted to reduce interest rates to cushion the blow—despite an increase in inflation.”
Compare & Contrast Or, “I Wish I Was Still The White House Easter Bunny”
I hope you feel sorry for Sean Spicer. I know I sure as hell do.
‘Sharon’ Dumps $8.2 Billion Into Popular Stock ETF
I’ve seen the chart shown below floating around today and I imagine you have too,
Exploiting Stupidity: How Populists Prey On The Uneducated
Folks like Le Pen and Trump and Wilders know that the most efficient way to exploit these fears for political gain is to tap those voters who are least likely to push back – i.e. to incite a panic among the uneducated who think that because a woman is wearing a burqa she must also be wearing a suicide vest.
One Trader Gives Up: “I Just Really Don’t Care”
“But the reality is markets are moving, and fast. For now it’s momentum and technicals that you’d better deal with if you want to thrive, or even, survive”
Chart Check: See No Evil…
What political uncertainty?
Alt-Right Blogosphere’s Attempt To Besmirch Coretta Scott King Debunked As Bullsh*t
Read Politifact’s take and decide for yourself who’s full of sh*t: Elizabeth Warren or the alt-Right blogosphere…
Dear America: How Stupid Are You?
There were already very real questions about whether it was appropriate to elevate a known racist to Attorney General…
“The Data Doesn’t Even Matter”
So just a few minutes ago, I said that “basically, the message is that unless
Key Calls (Thursday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
Get This Through Your Damn ‘Brain’ard
So basically, the message is that unless the S&P were to suddenly collapse, the Fed
Donald Trump The Latin American Demagogue
We’ve seen this movie before… and it usually ends badly.
Chart Check: Subprime Auto Delinquencies Near Crisis Levels
Over the past several weeks, I’ve documented what looks to be the beginning of the
Goldman: Dollar Subject To “Quick Upside Repricing,” Structural Strength
Regardless of whether you agree with how the market is now pricing the odds for a March hike, you should think about the extent to which policy divergence between the Fed and the BoJ/ECB is for all intents and purposes inevitable.
How About Some Deflation With Your Reflation?
You just need one chart…
Can Someone Please Explain This Schatz?!
We need to know the extent to which the Schatz spread to 2Y French govies is an indication of investors trying to price redenomination risk around a prospective Marine Le Pen win. That is, we need to understand how closely we should be watching the German curve as a barometer of political risk.
WTF Chart Check: Don’t Forget About France
Lest it should slip your mind that for every “success” Trump has, the odds of a French electoral “accident” increase, consider once again the disconnect between asset prices and policy uncertainty in Paris as illustrated here by HY spreads versus the EPU…
2-Year Yields Highest Since 2009 While German Yields Argue With Soaring Inflation
One thing you might want to note is that 2Y yields hit their highest level
As March Odds Top 80%, One Bank Says Not So Fast
“That Wells Fargo note is looking pretty prescient right now” – said no one, anywhere ever. Until now.
Traders, Analysts Are Pissed: “At Some Point, Everyone Is Going To Realize The New Emperor Has No Clothes”
“As analyst notes flow in to investors’ inboxes during the next 24 hours, asset prices may start reflecting a far more negative outcome. Beware downside moves in the dollar, in U.S. yields, and even in equities. At some point, traders may realize the new emperor has no clothes.”
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