10Y dollar fed fomc FX yen

Get This Through Your Damn ‘Brain’ard

So basically, the message is that unless the S&P were to suddenly collapse, the Fed is going to hike. They're really pushing the envelope on the messaging and if you buy into the whole reflexivity argument, then you have to think they want to move - and soon. Put differently, if this is all about stocks and the dollar ("the market") then the light is green. Like blindingly green. I talked a bit about this earlier this week. If it's financial conditions that are the determinant, well then we are ready to go. In case there were lingering questions - which there apparently were as the dollar faded on Wednesday afternoon, they were answered last night at 6 EST when Lael Brainard dropped a few tape bombs via prepared remarks for a speech at Harvard. To wit: “Assuming continued progress, it will likely be appropriate soon to remove additional accommodation, continuing on a gradual path" “We are closing in on full employment, inflation is moving gradually toward our target, foreign growth is on more solid footing, and risks to the outlook are as close to balanced as they have been in some time” “The past few months have seen continued progress in the labor market" “I
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