How About Some Deflation With Your Reflation?

Lost in today’s reflationary euphoria was (another) decidedly deflationary EIA report which showed that, to no one’s surprise, US stockpiles rose to yet another new high (although gasoline stocks did draw, marking a divergence with yesterday afternoon’s API read).

Mercifully, the build came in below estimates, but the story is the same as it ever was. For those who missed it, here are the numbers:

  • EIA: Crude +1,501k Bbl, Median Est. +3,000k Bbl
  • Cushing crude +495k
  • PADD 3 crude +2,308k
  • Gasoline -546k vs est. -1,500k
    • PADD 1B gasoline -1,140k
  • Distillates -925k vs est. -1,000k
    • PADD 1 Distillates +317k
  • Refinery utilization +1.7 ppt vs est. +0.2 ppt
  • Refinery crude inputs +393k b/d
  • Crude imports +303k b/d
  • Crude production +31k b/d

Recall that this comes on the heels of Tuesday’s Reuters headline fest that included reports of 94% compliance with the production cut agreement in February and news that, at least according to some unnamed sources, Riyadh wants to see crude at ~$60/bbl.

Panning out, here’s what the 24-hour picture looks like:

oil

This was the Bloomberg headline at 10:38: “WTI Maintains Gains, U.S. Crude Stocks Rise Less Than Expected”

This was the Bloomberg headline at 11:04: “WTI Crude Erases Gains, U.S. Crude Inventories Climb to Record”

(LOL)

And this is the only chart you need to assess this market:

chartoilinv

(Citi, EIA)

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