‘The Ultimate Negative Feedback Loop’
“With asset prices so well correlated to financial conditions now, being too hawkish – and instigating market tantrums – creates the ultimate negative feedback loop.”
Happy July 4: Everyone Hates Everyone
“Of course, dissent is essential. Democracy without dissent is not democracy. But dissent should be disciplined. It should not indulge in fantasies that make partisans feel good but are profoundly misleading. This inevitable disillusion is where we are today.”
VIX Call/Put Ratio Spikes Near Post-Crisis High
“If we are nearing the end of the current low vol regime, this has material implications for asset allocation and specifically volatility selling strategies, which have been increasingly popular.”
Mind The ‘Transatlantic Convergence’ Theme
“One of the things we hear discussed a lot is that an inverted yield curve tends to be a good predictor of recessions, but that’s because it comes at the same time as peak Fed Funds, and ‘peak tight money’ is a good predictor of recessions for more obvious reasons.”
“A Major, Serious” Situation In Japan, PMIs Galore, And A Deadline For Qatar
Ok, so Shinzo Abe’s LDP suffered a stunning loss in Tokyo assembly elections over the weekend,
Jobs Report, Chilled Urine, And Kashkari’s Rib Roast: Full Week Ahead Preview
If you were following along last week, then you already know what to look for
Petri Satire: ‘I’m Putting My Foot Down – On My Way To Vote Against Icebergs’
“I am shocked and appalled by his behavior. And I am not afraid to say so. At a fundraiser. For him. Before asking for more donations.”
“SAR”-ry: Is It Time To Talk About The Saudi Riyal Peg Again?
Remember back in late 2015/early 2016 when everyone was panicking about the Saudi riyal peg
Do Super-Rich Presidents Get A Pass?
“At the heart of the emoluments controversy is President Trump’s refusal to liquidate his business holdings. “
“Traditionally Presidential” Assad Gets Face On New Syria Bank Note
Because while there’s no “presidential” precedent for Trump’s tweets, there is indeed “presidential” precedent for gassing one’s own people. Just ask Saddam Hussein.
‘Trump Is A Walking Advertisement For Ritalin’
“If you want to look at the bright side of things, at least we’ve learned that the nation can survive for half a year without a sane, functioning presidency.”
2 Charts Show How Worried Markets Are About Qatar Crisis
“Consequences”…
Trump Tweets Video Of The Time He Clotheslined Vince McMahon, Tags It #FraudNewsCNN
“Modern presidential.”
Stocks Dive In “Fearless” Qatar As Deadline Looms, Banks Halt Riyal Trading
“There is no fear from our direction. We are ready to face the consequences.”
3rd Most Popular Equity 401k Has Highest Tech Exposure Since Dot-Com Bust
“The important thing is to know what you are invested in and be comfortable with it, so any further volatility doesn’t stress you out, or worse, freak you out and trigger a bout of panic selling.”
Trump Grabs Modernity By The Pussy, Redefines “Presidential,” Says Media Is “Fraudulent”
“I know it wasn’t presidential, but what did you think?”
Matt Tait: That Time I Got Recruited to Collude with the Russians
“Indeed, I still do not fully understand the events I am going to describe, both what they reflected then or what they mean in retrospect. But I can lay out what happened, facts from which readers and investigators can draw their own conclusions.”
Meanwhile, In China: “Relentless, All-Round” FX Shenanigans
Epic tug-of-war emerges as PBoC battles traders…
“Re: Trump Tweets”: Letters To The NY Times
“A misogynist, a conspiracy theorist and a liar, and he has a large ego, a thin skin, no filter and an unhealthy obsession with what the ‘fake news’ media says about him”…
This Could End With “Large Retail Investor Outflows From Bond ETFs”
If you are a credit investor, you should be worried right about now. For one
Is This It For Trump?
“For months, Trump watchers have wondered: What will it take?”
Hot ‘Covfefe’: Trump Blasts ‘Dumb As A Rock Mika,’ ‘Garbage’ CNN, Says States Conspiring Against Him
“They’re crazy, they’re dumb as a rock, and I assume, they’re not bad people.”
“Where It All Goes Wrong”
” Ultimately it all depends on inflation and growth but whether or not these are structurally driven or endogenous to the Fed’s and other central banks policy rhetoric remains to be seen. We remain skeptical!”
‘Turbo-Complacency’: Fear Gets A ‘New Dimension’ In Kocic’s Latest Masterpiece
“In the same way a boxer who drops his guard runs a risk of being knocked out, complacent markets are facing a potentially painful encounter with reality.”
Tech Turmoil: Black Swan Vol. Event Burns ETFs, Hedge Funds Dump Nasdaq Longs
“Do you see what happens?!”…
“Thank You For Calling Fox News 9-1-1”
“To continue in English, just keep listening—everything here is in English, because, the last time we checked, this was ​America​, goddammit.”
“Every Time The Market Has Moved Up To This Trendline” There’s Trouble
“Our fair value model indicates these pressures will push the US10yr up to 3.00%. The latter level is also the major support line coming all the way from the late 1980s.”
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