Key Calls (Monday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
Monday Trader Humor: “Let’s Assume Trump Is Guided By A Coherent View”
With the recent sputtering of the bullish-dollar reflation trade, perhaps it’s time to pay a bit more attention to what the president and his advisers are saying about currencies.”
Trump Instructs Followers To “Blame Federal Judge” For Future Terrorist Attacks
The most dangerous part of this is that millions upon millions of people in America would invariably do just as Trump says should a tragedy befall the US…
Sorry Donald, You Can’t Build An Autocracy Here
But this can only become America’s reality if the new administration is shrewd. Clever. Cunning. And, above all, patient. Trump is anything but.
A Fantastically Metaphysical Market Metaphor
In September 2015, just a few weeks after the latest incarnation of Black Monday, Deutsche Bank’s Aleksandar
Currency Markets In Turmoil: A Pocket Guide For The Week Ahead
As political risk continues to dominate the headlines (even as US equities steadfastly refuse to
Correlation Meets Causation
I told you so…
Chart Check (“Gold”en Opportunity)
You know when you think about it, it probably makes sense to go long gold
Top Strategist: Macro Is Running The Show And You “Should Not Be Surprised”
“Investing is macro and macro is geopolitics. If you don’t get that, you’re going to be perpetually behind the curve going forward.
“That’s A Pretty Big Conclusion To Make”: WSJ Questions Interpretation Of “Disappointing” Jobs Number
Investors and traders aren’t enamored with the January jobs number. And why should they be? After
Is This The Greatest Risk To Markets?
“(Un)favorable”…
Saturday Humor (“What Is This Country Coming To?”)
Can someone please help explain what’s going on, because Donald Trump is getting frustrated…
A Listless Nadir
So it’s the weekend and on weekends I like to keep things simple for those
Chart Check (History Is Not On My Side)
I’m going down with the ship: “this time is different.”
Goldman Tacitly Bullish On War
“A&D stocks will be direct beneficiaries of any increase in the defense budget.”
Trump Wakes Up, Has Epic Twitter Meltdown
I want to make an appeal to rationality here…
The Massive Spec Treasury Short Is Still… Well… Pretty Massive
As you’re surely aware, keeping up with the CFTC positioning data is mandatory these days.
Behold: A Whole Bunch Of “Bull”Sh*t
Now, look. The thing about predicting the future is that you can’t ever really be “wrong”
Good Jobs, Bad Jobs
It’s like they’re micromanaging this thing by the hour…
Elizabeth Warren Is Not F*cking Amused With Trump’s Dodd-Frank Rollback
“We’re finding out whose side Trump is really on”…
Chart Check (“Not Again Please”)
Stocks have become completely disconnected from rates and FX in terms of vol. That’s a dangerous thing because it only corrects in one of two ways: 1) rates and FX vol subside, or 2) equity vol rises. When if equity vol rises, your stocks will likely get hit.
Chart Check (“There Are Only Two Ways This Corrects Itself”)
There are only two ways that this corrects itself and one of them is bad for your stocks…
The Mystery Of Friday’s “Somehow Disappointing” Jobs Number
I mean look, I get it. And I’m sure you do too. Hourly earnings missed and it looks like the 0.1% m/m growth was the lowest since last August. If you’re so inclined you can read into that something about consumer spending and consumer spending is three fourths of the economy. And on, and on. It’s not rocket science. But…
On Payrolls Friday, One Trader Asks: “Are You Feeling Lucky?”
Here we are on payrolls Friday after a week in which a lot of sh*t
January Payrolls Beat, Unemployment Ticks Higher
227K vs. 180K est.
Friday Morning Humor (“Our New Reality”)
“To be clear, this is actually happening”…
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