Chart Check: “Le Pen Risk” Falls To Lowest In 5 Weeks

There’s been no shortage of warnings from analysts, economists, and political scientists (you know, Taleb’s “pseudo-experts” who know nothing) regarding just how traumatic it would be both for financial markets and for the EU in general were Marine Le Pen to pull a (populist) rabbit of her hat and win the French presidency.

But is that “tail risk” becoming more tail risk-ish (i.e. less probable)?

According to credit markets, the answer would appear to be “yes”, as French CDS is now trading below 50bps for the first time since mid-February:

France

And it’s the same story with OATs:

OATs

Meanwhile, in the latest rolling daily poll from Ifop:

  • Macron Would Beat Le Pen 60%-40% in 2nd Round: Daily Ifop Poll

First Round:

  • Emmanuel Macron 25.5%
  • Marine Le Pen 25%
  • Francois Fillon 17.5%
  • Benoit Hamon 10.5%
  • Jean-Luc Melenchon 14%
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One thought on “Chart Check: “Le Pen Risk” Falls To Lowest In 5 Weeks

  1. In this time of “bad dreams” it would be a mistake to overlook the strong possibility of “MURPHY” rearing it’s ugly head.

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