Warning: “The Tide Has Turned – It’s A Matter Of ‘When’, Not ‘If’ Markets Break Down”
“It’s now a matter of when, not if, markets break down into a proper bout of risk-aversion. As for timing, we’re debating the hour rather than the week.”
Trader: “You Always Want To Hit A Home Run – But You Strike Out A Lot.”
“The question you need to be constantly asking yourself is whether any given move or news is fundamentally important or at the margin? Does it break new ground or is just a data point? Will there be some policy response or not?”
Spot The Moment Mario Draghi Opened His Mouth
Thursday morning chart challenge…
Key Calls (Thursday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
Goldman Likes Its Fed Minutes “Mildly Hawkish,” Probability Of June Hike Still 60%
“Overall, the mildly hawkish minutes increase our confidence that balance sheet normalization will be announced this year and are also marginally supportive of a June hike.”
Do Us All A Favor: Don’t Make A Mockery Of Dead Syrian Children. Ok, Thanks.
We have another Heisenberg “protip” for readers: when you read “analysis” of Mideast affairs, you
4 Charts Show The US Auto Bubble “Slamming On The Brakes”
A visual “downshift”…
Fed Minutes: Full Breakdown
In the lead up to the release of the Fed minutes, stocks were buoyant as
“Do I Think? Yes, I Think” Trump Says Susan Rice Is A Criminal
“I think it’s going to be the biggest story.”
One Strategist Compared Hedge Funds To Passive Index Funds: “The Results Were Breathtaking”
“Hedge funds’ returns have started to track the SPX more closely. As that happens, their ability to outperform has collapsed. This makes intuitive sense; there’s no way you can beat an index when you’re paying 2 and 20 on an investment vehicle that largely replicates the return of the index!”
Are You Buying The Susan Rice Diversion? Try This Thought Experiment
Ok, so here’s a fun thought experiment. Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Barack Obama and
Dr. Evil Demoted? Trump Boots Steve Bannon From National Security Council
President Donald Trump reorganized his National Security Council on Wednesday, removing his chief strategist, Stephen Bannon, and downgrading the role of his Homeland Security Adviser, Tom Bossert, according to a person familiar with the decision and a regulatory filing.
Albert Edwards Warns: “Fed Tightening Cycles Almost Always End In Recession”
“Collapsing bank lending growth is signalling that something is amiss and the Fed should stop raising rates, but I expect rapidly rising wage inflation will push the Fed into overkill. Fed tightening cycles almost always end in recession and this time will be no exception.”
Crude BTFD Algo MIA As Oil Slumps On “Surprisingly” Bearish Data
Will someone please remind us again how we’ve gotten it wrong all along about crude and about how this market is going to balance any day now?
Trump’s “War On Journalism”: “Whether He Knows It Or Not, He’s Echoing Stalin”
“In Donald Trump’s America, the mere act of reporting news unflattering to the president is held up as evidence of bias. Journalists are slandered as “enemies of the people.â€
Let There Be Jobs Dammit! Risk Hits The Ground Running After ADP
Right out of the gate…
Goldman’s Hatzius: “Unpleasant Trend” In US Auto Market – And Uber/Lyft Will Make It Worse
Longer term, the risks to these estimates are probably on the downside, especially if the “sharing economyâ€â€” exemplified by companies such as Zipcar, Uber, Lyft, and Via—makes deeper inroads into the transportation sector).
Hedge Funds Suffered Worst Short-Squeeze Since 2009 In Q4 Amid “Trump Rally”
So the thing about “hedge” funds is that generally speaking, they’re supposed to provide a
ADP Beats; Yields, Dollar Jump
ADP RESEARCH INSTITUTE SAYS U.S. ADDED 263,000 JOBS IN MARCH
Watch Those Minutes. ADP Ahoy! Le Pen Loses Her Sh*t. And More On A Fun Wednesday
“Let’s not forget where we’re coming from,†he shouted, struggling to be heard over his rival. “You have been repeating the same lies for 40 years — those your father used to tell.â€
Goldman “Unmasks” The Culprit Behind US Auto Loan Delinquencies
” However, the chart masks the growth of “deep subprime†lending programs, targeting borrowers with credit scores far below the 620 cutoff. For example, some recent deep subprime ABS transactions featured pools with average credit score of just 545, with 20% of borrowers not having a credit score at all, a condition known to signal high default risk.”
Trader: Trump And Xi Are All That Matter Now
“That environment leads to an adamantly divided market. On one side are those who cite growth and liquidity as a reason to always buy the dip. On the other, those who fear calamity, citing the idea that low volatility has induced excess leverage to chase returns and a misallocation of capital.”
Trader: Why Do “You Need To Be Miserable To Be Happy?”
“I don’t know what kind of a market environment we’re eventually going to be in, but there’s little to suggest we’ve been living through anything approximating risk-off mode.”
Key Calls (Wednesday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
Texas Democrat: “Some Trump People Will End Up In Jail”
“I would say this. My impression is that I wouldn’t be surprised after all of this is said and done that some people end up in jail.”
2013 Vs. 2017: Trump On Syria Chemical Attacks
Well count us confused. As we noted last week, it’s probably best not to sanction CIA
Call Alex Jones “A Russian” One More Time…
Ok, so those who frequent these pages know that we have … how should we
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