The Algo Wars Are Real: Inside The Pentagon’s “Algorithmic-Warfare Team”
“The Team has been assigned to consolidate “existing algorithm-based technology initiatives related to mission areas of the Defense Intelligence Enterprise.†That remit expressly includes “all initiatives that develop, employ, or field artificial intelligence, automation, machine learning, deep learning, and computer vision algorithms.”
“Fatalistic” Markets Give In To Summer Lull, Crude Chaos, Washington “Horror Show”
“In fact it’s odd how fatalistic people seem to be. We used to furiously debate where and when we’d find the canary in the coal mine warning of an imminent market reversal to pounce on. Now, there seems to be blanket resignation that the trend is your master.”
We’re Devolving: “It Used To Be That Politics Only Trumped Econ In Emerging Markets – Not Anymore”
“Yet, the chart which struck me as most relevant in the whole thing showed how market response to either Fed or ECB meetings has become calmer and calmer, whereas the response to the three major G7 political events of the last year (and a bit) has been so dramatic.”
“No One Has A Clue”: Markets Baffled By Monday’s Gold Flash Crash
“No-one has a clue, apart from the unfortunate individual that pressed the wrong button.”
Gold Flash Crashes, “Jubilant” Germans, And Bank Bailouts
Well, gold plunged $18 in seconds on surging volume (18k contracts in a one-minute window)
Key Calls (Monday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
You need an upgrade.
3 C’s: Crude, Carry, CPI And Your Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, so it’s Sunday which, as we’re fond of reminding you, means that tomorrow will be Monday – right up until Trump does something that takes the whole of idea of there being a “tomorrow” off the table…
A Brief History Of The Next 30 Years
“Capitalism is exiting the historical scene. However, before it disappears, capitalism will continue to inhabit the world of undead.”
Reality Check: Rolling Back Globalization Is A Really Stupid Idea
“But rolling back globalisation would be as foolhardy as rolling back technological change.”
“Comey Wore A Black Tie To Trump’s Circus”
“Yet Trump, who denies everything, has managed to create a fictional narrative that not only justifies his dangling bluff but also gilds it as a moral victory: He tweeted about tapes to make sure “leaker†Comey would be honest when he testified.”
BIS: “The End Will Resemble A Financial Boom Gone Wrong – With A Vengeance”
If those deep forces have not yet fully run their course, the end of the current expansion may be different. That end may come to resemble more closely a financial boom gone wrong, just as the latest recession showed, with a vengeance.”
Fate Of Trump’s Travel Ban Hangs In The Balance: 6 SCOTUS Options
The buck stops here…
It’s The Politics Stupid! BIS Flags A “Scary” Change In The Market’s Mindset
“Underlying a number of these changes was a shift of market participants’ attention away from monetary policy and towards political events.”
When Doves Cry: Kocherlakota Is Worried That The Fed Has Abandoned You
Allison Nathan: Narayana, if inflation fails to accelerate from here, is there anything that would convince you that the Fed should get more hawkish?
Narayana Kocherlakota: No.
“That’s Not A Bubble. THIS Is A Bubble”
“Woe betide any fund manager who switched into Value stocks at the first sign of volatility back then.”
Sally Yates: Hey Jeff Sessions, “There’s A Difference Between A Cartel Boss And A Street Dealer”
“First, it’s fiscally irresponsible and undermines public safety. Since 1980, the U.S. prison population has exploded from 500,000 to more than 2.2 million, resulting in the highest incarceration rate in the world and costing more than $80 billion a year”…
Make Child Labor Great Again! Trump Promises To “Put Minors Back To Work”
“Makes me nostalgic for that great asbestos insulation”…
“Mercury Rising”: Here Are The 4 Mideast “Flashpoints” Markets Should Fear
“The implications are far reaching, with scarcely a country in the region not at risk of being drawn in.”
Barclays Sarcastically Asks: “What Could Possibly Go Wrong?”
“The reality is that there are many risks on the horizon as we write”…
Trump’s Border Wall Idea “Sounds Like It Came From Another Country”
“Although its effectiveness has not been measured, the truth is that for all practical purposes, the southern border already has a barrier in place.”
A Contrarian View On The Next Recession Consistent With Historical Precedent
“The most frequent contributors to modern recessions have been monetary policy tightening and oil price shocks, with the former in response to inflation that often gained momentum from the latter.”
In Saudi-Qatar Spat, “Terrorist” Is A Political Term
“There is no question that these individuals are connected to Qatar, but the question of whether they are “terrorists†or not is essentially political.”
“Do You Ever Have Déjà Vu, Mrs. Lancaster?”: Oil And The “Slippery Slope”
“I don’t think so, but I can check with the kitchen”…
“Missing Was The Exclamation Mark”: Is It Time To Take Trump’s Tweets More Seriously?
“‘I did not make, and do not have, any such recordings.’ Missing is the standard exclamation mark.”
“We Are Close To A Point When The Narrative Changes”: Deutsche Warns On High Yield, Oil
“Historical evidence suggests that D/EV ratios at 60% or higher lead to a material jump in expected credit losses.”
ETFs To The Rescue!
“ETFs own almost 6% of the equity market, the highest ETF share on record. In contrast, mutual fund ownership fell to its lowest level since 2004 (24%).”
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