The rumors weren’t rumors. Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race on Sunday afternoon in the US.
Headed into the weekend, there were whispers that Biden’s exit could be imminent. As I wrote in the Weekly, the campaign was in a veritable doom loop. The more Democrats went public with calls for him to step aside, the less viable his candidacy appeared, prompting other Democrats to grab for the remaining life boats.
By the time Biden officially dropped his reelection bid on Sunday, an intra-party rebellion that began with a handful of no-name outliers in the House had spread to the upper echelons of the party. Biden’s candidacy became completely untenable in recent days when media reports indicated that both Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi told Biden in private he likely couldn’t win and that his presence at the top of the ticket imperiled Democrats’ chances in House and Senate races.
“It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your president,” Biden said. “And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and focus entirely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term.”
Biden went on to say that he won’t accept the nomination. “Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year,” Biden said, exhorting Democrats to “come together and beat Trump.”
To recycle some talking points from the Weekly (linked above), Trump’s campaign was designed specifically to beat Biden. Only recently — which is to say over the last two or three weeks — did Trump’s team begin to prepare for a head-to-head with Harris. There was no real backup plan for Biden bowing out, or at least not this early.
Whatever you want to say about Trump’s chances against Harris, there’s no question that the campaign was hoping Biden would stay in. The jovial mood at the RNC last week was predicated in no small part on the implicit assumption that the race was over. If the GOP convention felt more like a victory lap to you than a nomination ceremony, that’s because it was.
All along, Trump’s campaign message was this: I’m strong, Biden’s weak. That message was exemplified in the stark juxtaposition between Biden’s frail visage at the debate and Trump’s bloody fist-pumping in the moments after a bullet grazed his ear at a Pennsylvania rally.
The irony of the assassination attempt against Trump was that it ultimately dealt a death blow to Biden‘s reelection bid. Biden can’t hold a thought after dark. By contrast, not even a rifle bullet to the head can stop Trump. That’s what some voters took away from recent events.
Against Biden, Trump had become unbeatable. Or at least that was the thinking among Republicans. In Harris, assuming she does in fact prevail through any confused mini-primary process or convention chaos, Trump would face a much younger, much sharper opponent who, while not an especially gifted politician at the national level, will be a difficult debate for Trump in September. She’s trained as a prosecutor. Trump’s a demagogue who doesn’t even recognize the existence of facts, let alone have his straight.
But that’s getting too far ahead. In the coming days, Democrats need to decide how to approach the ticket. Dragging the process out could create the perception of disarray, a liability at a time when the GOP is at least presenting a united front, albeit united around what half the country still sees as a dangerously illiberal, borderline anti-democratic ethos that’s struggling to reconcile gains with African Americans and Hispanics with white supremacist dog whistling and an overtly xenophobic immigration agenda.
To be sure, this isn’t the way Biden wanted to end his career in Washington. It’s safe to say he’s personally devastated that it came to this. But that’s a separate discussion, and it’s one I intend to have in these pages in due course.
For now, Democrats would do well to line up behind Harris and let her loose, so to speak. Maybe some of the other potential candidates are stronger than Harris at the margins, but I don’t think that difference, where it exists, is enough to justify wasting time choosing between them. They should push their chips: “Harris is what we got. All-in.”
Team Trump will now spend the next several days working around the clock on opposition messaging to undermine Harris. It’ll be Adderall, caffeine and coke — not necessarily in that order. As noted, Trump’s campaign wasn’t prepared for this. Effectively, they beat Biden three months too early. Now, they have to run an entirely new race.
Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, the architects of Trump’s campaign, are arguably caught flatfooted for the first time, albeit through no fault of their own, unless being too successful counts as a misstep. On Sunday, they didn’t have a lot to offer. Harris, they wrote in a statement, is “the Enabler in Chief.” There’s no distinction between the vice president and Biden, they said.
I’m not suggesting (not at all) that Trump isn’t still the favorite. He is. I’ll go so far as to say he’s still a heavy favorite. Harris will start from behind.
But she could make up ground quickly if she runs a good campaign. And if Democrats line up behind her and don’t subject the American voter to a circus that makes the party look even more inept than it already does.
To reiterate: Harris isn’t an especially gifted politician, or at least not at the national level. But it’d be a mistake, and not a small one, for Trump to wave her away as an unserious candidate. Pretending nothing’s changed isn’t a viable strategy for Trump. LaCivita and Wiles surely know that.
To state the obvious, Americans will be asked, in Harris, to elect a woman of color as commander in chief. That’s a big ask of a country where misogyny and racism are endemic across broad swaths of the electorate.
Barack Obama didn’t immediately endorse her. “I have extraordinary confidence that the leaders of our party will be able to create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges,” he said. A lot of Americans are still hoping (against hope) that the “outstanding nominee” turns out to be his wife. But that appears to be off the table.
Long story short, assuming Harris is the nominee, this won’t be the walkover for Trump that it might’ve been had Biden refused to step aside. Trump wanted a “Fight!” Now he’s going to get one.
“We have 107 days,” Harris said. “Together, we will fight. And together, we will win.”
Game on, indeed. Can’t wait for the next presidential debate (assuming Harris will be the nominee). She will eviscerate Trump and it will be a pleasure to see. He is scared sh-tless of her, as she is everything he fears: a smart, sharp, articulate and accomplished woman.
I won’t be surprised if Trump refuses to debate her. That strategy worked out well for him during the Republican primaries, so without punching-bag Biden to walk over, he might well decide it’s best to just refuse her the chance.
He would likely wait to debate until she’s nominated…in case of an open convention. It will be interesting to see how quickly Dems can close the ranks behind Harris.
Having Harris step in as the lead is cleaner legally, limiting inevitable “Republican” shenanigans. There’s plenty of documentation of “Republicans” suggesting that Biden is too feeble to last another term, so their own assessments can be used against them in court challenges.
I believe anyone that would line up behind Joe, would likely line up behind Kamala, to stop another orange man term. Kamala is likely to pull in voters that weren’t thrilled with the old menu too, and are looking to turn the page. Plus, she’ll likely win over more women, which rightly should be concerned about losing more freedoms, if the orange man wins.
Yeah, those legal challenges you mention are real too. And you’re right, Harris is the best way to nullify them.
I realize a lot of Democrats would like to see Michelle Obama — you know — ride down from the clouds on a winged unicorn and fire lightning bolts from a glowing staff at the evil hordes of goblins and trolls gathered on the dark, stormy wind-swept plains (or whatever), but I’m afraid that’s not how it’s going to go.
I really don’t think there’s much use trying to discern whether Newsom or Whitmer might be “better on paper” than Harris. Any polling differences are surely within the margin of error and skipping over Harris would create more intra-party chaos.
I wonder if adding Whitmer would:
Help deliver Michigan and maybe boost the Rust Belt win odds in general
Make it more difficult for the Orange Man to attack two ladies, without being seen as the bully he really is…
Boost the odds that women get excited about, not only ensuring some of their rights remain, but also the idea of two ladies running the country for a change
2 women on the ticket is seen as a big ask. Even right wing leaning guys like Hanania admit that selecting a white man as VP makes the Harris candidacy more potent…
Prediction – the ticket will be Harris and either Josh Shapiro or Roy Cooper, nailing down a battleground state . Take that, JD Vance.
I’m a big fan of Shapiro. That’s influenced by the fact that I live in Pennsylvania–not because it biases me towards him mind, just because it means I happen to be more knowledgeable about him than pretty much any other state’s governor. That said, he’d be a fine choice.
Like Babe Ruth pointing to the bleachers, I cranked this one out of the park.
https://heisenbergreport.com/2023/11/04/stocks-and-the-2024-election-an-early-preview/#comment-71047
If she manages to beat this lunatic, it’ll go down as a historic upset victory. Maybe she’s not actually playing that far behind in the polls, but from a kind of “feel the momentum” perspective, Trump seems like he could run straight through brick walls right now like the Kool-Aid man.
Orange Cool-Aid!
The republicons started it; now it’s perfectly legitimate for Harris to use the age issue against that demented old fart.
Exactly, it’s easy to point out his gafffes, his entire “speech” is a series of them every time he opens his mouth.
I expect the media will fall for dog whistle tactics and over report on them, continuing to ignore how unimaginably awful Trump is as a presidential candidate.
Wondering (just fantasiziing perhaps) if now that he’s a lame duck, might Joe utilize the recent SCOTUS ruling on Presidential immunity to really go after Trump and some of the more outrageous flunkies in his cult? “Lock (’em) Up!” (since MAGA-world already wholeheartedly believes the lie that Biden is directing the persecution and prosecution of Trump, might as well conform to their reality?).
Run Wes Run!
2028
I would bet that he’s hoping the “outstanding nominee” is his wife. That’s probably why he hasn’t endorsed Harris. Only when he endorses someone else, can we be certain that his wife is not the eventual nominee.
H-Man, we will see how much fire she has in her belly and it better be a lot. She will have one shot in September to wreak havoc in the debate and it needs to be a good show. Meanwhile August will simply be a month of posturing by both sides.
I just rewatched some of Kamala’s speeches on YouTube. She is not the best speaker- and I think her best strategy (assuming the donors quickly step in to back her) will be to keep a low profile, make a few good (keep them short) speeches that can be rebroadcast and then just stand by while Trump implodes. His concluding speech at the RNC convention and his comments today regarding Biden’s decision to step aside were even more horrible and cringeworthy than normal.
A lot can happen between now and November- “it ain’t over til it’s over!”
She’s fine as a public speaker. “Stand by while Trump implodes” is the strategy that lost this race for Biden. Trump isn’t going to implode. And hiding Harris in The White House and keeping her speeches few, far between and short, is also the strategy that lost this race for Biden. You expect Americans to vote for somebody who won’t come out and talk to them? She needs to act like the president she’s running to be. Which is to say she needs to be out there, showing people “Hey, here I am. I can do this. I want to do this. I can be your president, I want to be your president, I’m excited to be your president and you should be excited for me to be your president.” If she can’t do that, then she shouldn’t be president. The President of the United States doesn’t hide.
Well said Sir. She can’t depend on the media alone to craft her narrative.
Trump will look weak if he doesn’t debate Kamala
THANK YOU for Saving the USA From Him!
Founders Sing and his Cabinet honor Joe Biden
I think Harris is pretty uniquely qualified to go after Trump. For one thing, she’s a former prosecutor who can hammer that skill against Trump’s criminality. Secondly, I’m going to guess the vast majority of H’s readership is men and I don’t believe most men, particularly older ones, fully grasp the ramifications of Roe rollbacks on women’s healthcare. Not just abortion, healthcare. Well, I can promise that women do and Harris will make that issue front and center in this election, something I think Biden never felt very comfortable with. It’s a winning issue for Democrats as seen in some of the post-Dobbs election results.
I forgot to add that Trump’s “black jobs” comment got some airplay after the debate even with the focus on Biden’s performance. There’s a not-zero chance Harris’ candidacy forces Trump into a complete blunder on race. And yes, we know he’s already racist. But if he just starts using the n-word, I don’t think that will play well outside his base.
I don’t like the “he’s a racist” strategy with Trump. Yes, he’s a racist. But he’s a racist like three quarters of all white men over the age of 70 are racists. That’s not to say he hasn’t done some overtly racist things in his day. He has. The Central Park Five debacle being perhaps the worst example. But let’s face it: If you’re willing to put on a red hat and vote for him, he’ll take you golfing, buy you a steak, shake your hand, hug you and pose for pictures with you no matter what race, creed or gender you are. If there was an advocacy group called “Latin American drug lords for Trump” or a Crip-affiliated group called “Blues for Red” he’d host them at Mar-a-Lago. I lived in the Deep South for about ~a third of my life. Trump’s not a racist like local politicians and officials in the Deep South are racist. Some of those men would sooner lose a thousand times before they’d court the Black vote.
I think it’s possible — albeit not likely to be presented quite this way — that the GOP will try to de facto prevent Democrats from putting up a candidate at all. I think the subtext of any legal challenges to replacing Biden on the ticket will be a desire on Trump’s part to swing for the fences and make this a choiceless “election” where he’s the only serious candidate on the ballot. Before anyone laughs (or scoffs) do note: Any litigation that ends up in the Supreme Court will go Trump’s way no matter how outrageous. Roberts probably wouldn’t stand for that, but Alito and Thomas would absolutely entertain it. I really — really — don’t think most people understand just how uncommitted Trump is to democracy. He doesn’t have any use for it if it isn’t going to serve his interests.
Don’t know if Kamala is the right pick… Her history as a prosecutor is polarizing in its own right and honestly she’s not been very effective as a VP other than Cheerleader-in-Chief for Joe. I should note that generally VPs are given the impossible tasks (i.e. Border wall/ immigration policy with a deadlocked congress, tackling Mid-East peace etc.) but she has not covered herself in glory.
I think most Dems were prepared to hold their nose and vote for Biden understanding that he was old but he was smart enough to have a strong team around him and generally he’s not malicious in intent, which feels like an excruciatingly low bar for national politics but that’s where we are.
This decision feels forced due to several “Senior” moments which are common of Joe previously, and one really, really bad debate night. The energy coming from the RNC put Dems further on the back foot but the momentum would have subsided given time. Big money donors cut off the funding spigot but for all the money they have they only represent a small number of votes. Do we want them putting their hands on the scale?
Dems have potentially done more harm than good by forcing Joe out, and given the Big-Tent nature of the party, are bound to disappoint/ upset a major block within the party whoever ends up getting the nom.
Also given how Hilary did with WW in 2016, I wouldn’t be so sure all AA/ Other Minority women will coalesce around Kamala just because she a woman. Just my humble opinion.
My thesis is that the Democrat nominee need not be an inspirational campaigner, but rather needs to be 1) neither Biden nor Trump, and 2) generally acceptable. 1 is because that is who most poll respondents have said they prefer, and 2 is tautological. I don’t know if Harris is actually neither Biden nor Trump, or if she is generally acceptable for the reasons H mentioned. Then again, we also don’t know if she will be the nominee.
She’ll be the nominee. Everyone else who was a realistic contender has endorsed Harris. That just leaves Michelle, whom I believe when she says she doesn’t want the job.
And if Harris picks a solid VP like Whitmer, a governor from a swing state, Michigan, then it will be impossible to deny Harris the nomination.
They can’t (and won’t) do an all female ticket. That’s a guaranteed loser. I’m not saying I wouldn’t vote for it (I would, happily), but they’ll never beat Trump with a two-woman ticket. There’s no chance that they’ll do that. None.
I was thinking that a woman governor would be able to better dismantle JD Vance, a junior Senator with no executive experience.