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Featured

Have The Hyper-Scalers Lost Their Minds?

November 2, 2026November 2, 2026
  • Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance

    November 2, 2026November 2, 2026
  • Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!

    November 2, 2026November 2, 2026
  • Let’s Talk Blue Waves

    November 1, 2026November 1, 2026

Markets

Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

October 31, 2026November 2, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026November 2, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026October 31, 2026

economy

Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026
  • ‘Remains Elevated’

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Coronavirus Black Swan Infects China’s Yuan To Start Week

January 27, 2020January 27, 2020

“Risk aversion is contagious”.

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Nomura’s McElligott: ‘Violent’ Virus Contagion Flips Dealer Gamma Profile, Prompts ‘Massive Stop-Outs’ In Treasury Shorts

January 27, 2020January 27, 2020

“”The lower we go from here”…

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4 Comments on Nomura’s McElligott: ‘Violent’ Virus Contagion Flips Dealer Gamma Profile, Prompts ‘Massive Stop-Outs’ In Treasury Shorts

John Bolton Torpedoes Trump Impeachment Defense In Book Draft, NYT’s Haberman Says

January 26, 2020October 12, 2021

“There can be no doubt now that Mr. Bolton directly contradicts the heart of the president’s defense”.

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6 Comments on John Bolton Torpedoes Trump Impeachment Defense In Book Draft, NYT’s Haberman Says

Treasury Yields Erase Entire ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal Bounce Amid Virus Scare

January 26, 2020January 26, 2020

It was risk-off out of the gate Monday.

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7 Comments on Treasury Yields Erase Entire ‘Phase One’ Trade Deal Bounce Amid Virus Scare

(Still) The Most Underappreciated Tail Risk

January 26, 2020

It seems far-fetched now, but it’s always the ones you don’t see coming that are a problem.

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3 Comments on (Still) The Most Underappreciated Tail Risk

Pandemic Fears Meet Fed, Impeachment, Tech Earnings With Stocks In Stratosphere

January 26, 2020January 26, 2020

A little trepidation.

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1 Comment on Pandemic Fears Meet Fed, Impeachment, Tech Earnings With Stocks In Stratosphere

‘Head On A Pike’: Let’s Drop The Charade. Trump Physically Threatens People All The Time.

January 26, 2020January 26, 2020

“Do you take that as a threat?”

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10 Comments on ‘Head On A Pike’: Let’s Drop The Charade. Trump Physically Threatens People All The Time.

Where Were You When The World Didn’t End?

January 25, 2020April 22, 2022

When the US House rejected the Wall Street bailout bill on September 29, 2008, I

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11 Comments on Where Were You When The World Didn’t End?

As Wuhan Virus Spreads, Will The Yuan Get Sick?

January 25, 2020January 25, 2020

Assuming at least some of us live to trade another day…

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‘Parabolic’ Tech And The ‘Good’ Idea Misnomer

January 25, 2020January 25, 2020

Too often, we conflate getting in lower than the next person in a “greater fool” market with making a “good” decision.

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1 Comment on ‘Parabolic’ Tech And The ‘Good’ Idea Misnomer

After Worst Week For US Stocks Since August, The Big Story Is Actually Bonds

January 24, 2020January 25, 2020

This really wasn’t supposed to happen.

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7 Comments on After Worst Week For US Stocks Since August, The Big Story Is Actually Bonds

Stocks, Crude Have Seen Enough ‘Deadly Respiratory Illness’ Headlines For One Week

January 24, 2020January 24, 2020

Let’s just get to the weekend before anything really bad happens.

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oil1 Comment on Stocks, Crude Have Seen Enough ‘Deadly Respiratory Illness’ Headlines For One Week

‘Take Her Out’: Trump Caught On Tape Telling Lev Parnas To ‘Get Rid’ Of Marie Yovanovitch

January 24, 2020January 25, 2020

“I don’t care. Get her out tomorrow.”

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10 Comments on ‘Take Her Out’: Trump Caught On Tape Telling Lev Parnas To ‘Get Rid’ Of Marie Yovanovitch

India Weighs New Trump Trade Demand, But Modi Has A Much Bigger Problem: Stagflation

January 24, 2020

“We are doomed”.

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3 Comments on India Weighs New Trump Trade Demand, But Modi Has A Much Bigger Problem: Stagflation

‘TBH, I Doubt It Even Exists’: Some Now Worry Trump Auto Tariffs Based On Imaginary Document

January 24, 2020January 24, 2020

Maybe it only exists in Wilbur’s dreams.

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The ‘Boris Bounce’ Lives! ‘Decisive Change’ In UK PMIs Stokes Confusion Around Expected BOE Cut

January 24, 2020January 24, 2020

It’s now a coin flip – basically.

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1 Comment on The ‘Boris Bounce’ Lives! ‘Decisive Change’ In UK PMIs Stokes Confusion Around Expected BOE Cut

Euro-Area PMIs Are Rorschach Test In January

January 24, 2020January 24, 2020

No recession, but don’t bet on a “V-shaped” recovery.

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Superbug, Superbull

January 23, 2020January 24, 2020

But what is a “cycle” that doesn’t turn? Not a “cycle”, that’s for damn sure. 

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2 Comments on Superbug, Superbull

‘Just As Independent As The Fed’: Erdogan’s Son-In-Law Jokes About Trump’s Control Over Central Bank

January 23, 2020January 23, 2020

This is yet another manifestation of Trump’s behavior normalizing autocratic regimes.

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1 Comment on ‘Just As Independent As The Fed’: Erdogan’s Son-In-Law Jokes About Trump’s Control Over Central Bank

From IMAX To Mall Operators To ETFs, Here’s How The Wuhan Virus Infected Markets

January 23, 2020

Contagion!

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Macro Tourist On Gamma Gravity: ‘Don’t Underestimate The Pull Of Dealers’ Option Book’

January 23, 2020January 23, 2020

“Strategists such as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott and Marko Kolanovic have been elevated to god-like status”.

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2 Comments on Macro Tourist On Gamma Gravity: ‘Don’t Underestimate The Pull Of Dealers’ Option Book’

Nomura’s McElligott Takes Victory Lap As Markets Ponder Return Of ‘Duration Infatuation’

January 23, 2020January 23, 2020

Back to the future, as “slow-flation” trades are once again en vogue.

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1 Comment on Nomura’s McElligott Takes Victory Lap As Markets Ponder Return Of ‘Duration Infatuation’

Markets Look To Lagarde For ECB Strategy Review Details As Japanification Sets In

January 23, 2020January 23, 2020

Mitigating ‘Japanification’ is all that matters now.

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‘Rampant Panic’ In China, As Stocks Plunge In Worst Pre-Holiday Trade On Record

January 23, 2020January 23, 2020

The China-US “equity ratio” appears to have tagged the lowest point since 2005 on Thursday.

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1 Comment on ‘Rampant Panic’ In China, As Stocks Plunge In Worst Pre-Holiday Trade On Record

Outbreaks And Tech Melt-Ups

January 22, 2020January 23, 2020

A news anchor reads them, above static: “Stocks edged higher in volatile trading”…

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3 Comments on Outbreaks And Tech Melt-Ups

51% Of Americans Want Trump Removed From Office. But He Isn’t Going Anywhere.

January 22, 2020January 22, 2020

Personality cults, and such.

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4 Comments on 514 Of Americans Want Trump Removed From Office. But He Isn’t Going Anywhere.

The Crucial Nuance Behind Bridgewater Co-CIO Bob Prince’s ‘Boom-Bust Cycle Is Over’ Declaration

January 22, 2020January 22, 2020

“Bob, you’ve just it twice, and I’m still surprised”.

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5 Comments on The Crucial Nuance Behind Bridgewater Co-CIO Bob Prince’s ‘Boom-Bust Cycle Is Over’ Declaration

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • T-Dog on Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance
  • John Taylor on Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!
  • T-Dog on Let’s Talk Blue Waves
  • WeeblesWobble (ButTheyDon'tFallDown) on Have The Hyper-Scalers Lost Their Minds?

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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