How can a market “take into consideration all potential future events”? Obviously it can’t. That’s absurd. That said, stocks should be expected to discount what we might call “known unknowns.” That is, events that we know are likely to cause turbulence but that also admit of some indeterminacy regarding outcomes. Things that would fall into that category include the French elections and US tax reform.
Well, that escalated quickly. It wasn’t hard to predict what would set the tone overnight.
“Don’t be fooled by the the holiday-shortened trading week in the US. Next week promises to give investors plenty to watch, including the Greek bailout, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s testimony, retail earnings and Warren Buffett’s annual letter.”
That, right there, is why this is all so f*cking sad.
He doesn’t have a long, white beard. He doesn’t wear a robe or a pointy
One of the themes I harp on quite a lot in these pages is the
If you’re looking for pockets of risk (and you should always be looking for pockets
“Le Pen is mightier than le sword”…
“Has the whole world gone crazy?! Am I the only one around here who gives a sh*t about the rules?!”
Well, it’s been one hell of a week. We started on a sugar high thanks
It may not look very dramatic, but looks can be deceiving. It’s all about France
As I noted earlier on Friday, this week provided nothing in the way of clarity
If you were looking for clarity with regard to President Donald Trump’s policies or for any kind
What protection are you paying for? Marine Le Pen’s proposal to take France out of the euro is once again raising questions about whether CDS will “do what it says on the tinâ€. As on previous occasions, we fear the answer is “not necessarilyâ€
So what does any of this mean for average investors? Well, intuitively, it means there’s a chance for you to go out and find yourself some alpha by returning to your roots as an expert stock picker (boy, this post is just dripping with sarcasm).
Ok, it’s just getting comical now. Everyone is saying what I’ve been saying for months
“Theoretically, Europe is set to avoid each of this year’s political pitfalls — but the scares will be genuine. The euro will continue to slide in line with the rising long- term risk-premium around the region, while the bond markets flare-ups will be acute ahead of specific dates.”
Proponents of the nationalistic fervor currently spreading across Europe will likely find some poetic justice in the fact that the dissolution of the EU could ultimately unfold just as the bloc celebrates a milestone in time.
I’ve talked quite a bit about how the US equity market is grossly mispricing political
One of the most tragically ironic things about populism anno 2017 is the extent to which it reflects the very same radicalism its adherents claim to be fighting against.
With French election risk front and center, and having spent what is probably an inordinate
“Both of these inferences are wrong. The risk of a President Le Pen is far lower than the ex ante risk of Brexit or President Trump was last year, but the consequence of her winning would be far worse.”
In a further testament to the impact the resurrection of nationalism will likely have on markets, Fitch was out Friday warning that Trump’s policies could well prove catastrophic for the rest of the world.
What they’re really doing is grabbing power for themselves and taking advantage of “the people” who, thanks to a number of factors, are vulnerable to manipulation. They are false prophets.
But while populist candidates spewing nationalist vitriol likely won’t do anything to change the fact that Mark Zuckerberg is Mark Zuckerberg and you’re… well… not, do you know what they will do? They’ll end up destroying what little everyday people do have by throwing the entire global order into chaos. And that’s not hyperbole.
“I wonder if the ever cooing Yellen dove turns up on the day holding flowers in her beak, or will a machine gun be brandished in the same way it was on that fateful day in 1929″…
“This has helped the dollar trade like a haven currency again. The flip-side is that the greenback won’t necessarily rally in a positive risk environment”…
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