Chaos
Well I think it’s safe to say that geopolitical risk – which the naive among
Well I think it’s safe to say that geopolitical risk – which the naive among
“While we’re not (yet!) expecting the equivalent of the fall of the Roman Republic, we are nevertheless very suspicious of the presumption that recent technical strength can continue.”
“At the same time, tariffs would weigh on US growth. If we assume that Mexico and China retaliate with equivalent tariffs, this would substantially reduce demand for US exports, depressing US GDP by around 0.7pp by 2019. In fact, tariffs would likely hit US GDP so sharply that the Federal Reserve would be prompted to reduce interest rates to cushion the blow—despite an increase in inflation.”
We need to know the extent to which the Schatz spread to 2Y French govies is an indication of investors trying to price redenomination risk around a prospective Marine Le Pen win. That is, we need to understand how closely we should be watching the German curve as a barometer of political risk.
It would be a stretch to say he “did a good job.” It felt like we were watching a man who had been told, in no uncertain terms, that this was most assuredly not the time to play presidential Mad Libs.
As you might have noticed, the reflation narrative got a boost after hours when comments from
It’s all quiet on the Western and Eastern fronts as the market sits in suspended
Over the past week, I’ve given readers a window into the sometimes seedy world of marketplace
I’ve talked a ton about this, but I think it’s important to continually track how different assets are or aren’t pricing in the risk associated with a prospective Marine Le Pen victory in France. Let’s try a fun game…
Well, we start in FX land on Monday morning and as has become the norm
“Perhaps it’s emblematic of the times: Central-bank watching is passé, while handicapping political risk is en vogue.”
If you really know markets, then you know that last week’s biggest story was plunging
In other words, the market is trying to learn from its mistakes. We were caught off guard by the Brexit vote and Trump’s victory, so now, we’re seeing relatively large moves as traders’ collective desire to avoid the pitfalls of underestimating the probability of a tail event is manifest in the amplification of tiny blips in poll numbers.
“Fake feminist!”
It was just one week ago in “A $1.3 Trillion Quandary” that I (re)introduced you
“We have some experience in this domain: the example of Greece in the summer of 2015. That is not a happy precedent.”
You know what they say…
For the hundredth time: “What do rates know that credit doesn’t?”
Well I’m not sure if I’d call it “bullish”, but as I’ve noted before “less
You’d be forgiven for thinking that the EU and the EMU are quickly becoming institutional
Wax on, wax off. Risk on, risk off. I said it on Sunday: this week
Earlier this month, I noted that “Subprime Auto Loans Might Be Ok Because After All,
Following the release of the latest Fed Minutes, I was exceedingly amused to watch as seemingly every commentator one cared to (virtually) consult tried to put a hawkish spin on things. That is of course consistent with what Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow described overnight as a “hawkish retelling” of an otherwise dovish statement.
FOMC TO START BALANCE SHEET DEBATE AT UPCOMING MEETINGS
MOST FED OFFICIALS JUDGED GRADUAL RATE HIKE PACE APPROPRIATE
FOMC SEES DOWNSIDE RISK FROM STRONG DOLLAR
I said this week would be all about French politics and by God, the market hasn’t disappointed…
“Good morning.” And also: “I told you so.” This whole idea that because Marine Le
Investors are now so desperate for yield they’re willing to (literally) pay for obscene golden parachutes…
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