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Featured

Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Let’s Talk Blue Waves

    November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026October 31, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026

Markets

What’s What And WTF?

October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

    October 28, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

economy

‘Remains Elevated’

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Dollars, Defiance And Democracy

June 2, 2020June 2, 2020

“I can’t think of any market crash brought on by civil unrest”.

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26 Comments on Dollars, Defiance And Democracy

‘Thousands And Thousands Of Heavily Armed Soldiers’

June 1, 2020October 12, 2021

Martial law – in essence, anyway.

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23 Comments on ‘Thousands And Thousands Of Heavily Armed Soldiers’

2018 Flashbacks And Upside Down Bond Market Dynamics

June 1, 2020June 1, 2020

“We hold the opposite view”.

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1 Comment on 2018 Flashbacks And Upside Down Bond Market Dynamics

‘You Have To Dominate’

June 1, 2020October 12, 2021

“Are they taking us towards US collapse or renaissance?”

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17 Comments on ‘You Have To Dominate’

Nomura’s McElligott On ‘Big Deal’ Trend Inflections And June Sequencing

June 1, 2020June 1, 2020

“…a broader distribution of outcomes [and] a wider range thereafter”.

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3 Comments on Nomura’s McElligott On ‘Big Deal’ Trend Inflections And June Sequencing

Manufacturing Gauges Rendered Meaningless In COVID Crisis Suggest Economy Still Pretty Bad

June 1, 2020June 1, 2020

“Two cautious comments for every one optimistic comment”.

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Leave a Comment on Manufacturing Gauges Rendered Meaningless In COVID Crisis Suggest Economy Still Pretty Bad

‘Still Plenty Of Room For Stocks To Rise Further From Here,’ JPMorgan Says

June 1, 2020

“…collectively, investors are still underweight equities”.

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4 Comments on ‘Still Plenty Of Room For Stocks To Rise Further From Here,’ JPMorgan Says

China Mocks America For Violent Protests, Begins Canceling US Farm Imports

June 1, 2020June 1, 2020

“Why does the US beautify the so-called Hong Kong independence and violent elements as heroes?”

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5 Comments on China Mocks America For Violent Protests, Begins Canceling US Farm Imports

From The Archive, On Election Day: ‘If Trump Were A Market Maker, He Wouldn’t Last A Week’

May 31, 2020November 3, 2020

Editor’s note: I thought long and hard about what to feature prominently on Election Day

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19 Comments on From The Archive, On Election Day: ‘If Trump Were A Market Maker, He Wouldn’t Last A Week’

Cultural Breaking Point Threatens To Upend Fragile US Economy At Worst Possible Time

May 31, 2020May 31, 2020

This is a potential body blow.

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16 Comments on Cultural Breaking Point Threatens To Upend Fragile US Economy At Worst Possible Time

Yes, Fed Policy Exacerbates Inequality. But It Doesn’t Have To Be That Way.

May 31, 2020May 31, 2020

“Sad but true”

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8 Comments on Yes, Fed Policy Exacerbates Inequality. But It Doesn’t Have To Be That Way.

It’s Not The Economy, It’s The Liquidity, Stupid.

May 31, 2020May 31, 2020

If there’s anything we probably should have learned post-2008…

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6 Comments on It’s Not The Economy, It’s The Liquidity, Stupid.

America’s Chaotic Spiral Into Domestic Unrest Opens Door To Familiar Allegations Of Hypocrisy

May 31, 2020May 31, 2020

Protests and racial injustice may weaken the Trump administration’s hand with China at a crucial juncture.

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31 Comments on America’s Chaotic Spiral Into Domestic Unrest Opens Door To Familiar Allegations Of Hypocrisy

America’s Big Bankruptcy Questions: Who, When And How Many?

May 30, 2020May 31, 2020

We need to “have humility about how much predictive power our past experience gives us in the face of the current crisis.”

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5 Comments on America’s Big Bankruptcy Questions: Who, When And How Many?

The Case For Tech’s Infinity Rally

May 30, 2020May 30, 2020

The title is in jest – mostly.

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9 Comments on The Case For Tech’s Infinity Rally

Is This Still A Bear Market?

May 30, 2020May 30, 2020

…this isn’t coming from someone who is by nature a bullish individual.

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7 Comments on Is This Still A Bear Market?

Goldman Sees No More Gains For S&P By Year-End, Flags Biggest Margin ‘Collapse’ In Half-Century

May 30, 2020May 30, 2020

“…the path of the S&P 500 through year-end is not likely to be smooth”.

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6 Comments on Goldman Sees No More Gains For S&P By Year-End, Flags Biggest Margin ‘Collapse’ In Half-Century

Here’s A Quick Breakdown Of The Fed’s ETF Portfolio

May 29, 2020May 29, 2020

“Red lines”.

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2 Comments on Here’s A Quick Breakdown Of The Fed’s ETF Portfolio

Trump Terminates WHO Relationship, Blasts China For Hong Kong Incursion. Market Hears ‘Blah, Blah’

May 29, 2020May 30, 2020

“China’s coverup allowed [COVID-19] to spread all over the world”.

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15 Comments on Trump Terminates WHO Relationship, Blasts China For Hong Kong Incursion. Market Hears ‘Blah, Blah’

Someone Is Wrong About Inflation. Is It You Or The Fed’s Preferred Gauge?

May 29, 2020May 29, 2020

“Neat”.

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2 Comments on Someone Is Wrong About Inflation. Is It You Or The Fed’s Preferred Gauge?

Americans Now A Frugal Bunch As Savings Rate Surges To Unthinkable Heights In Consumption Plunge

May 29, 2020May 29, 2020

“…we could experience the same sort of private-sector savings surplus seen during a balance sheet recession”.

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4 Comments on Americans Now A Frugal Bunch As Savings Rate Surges To Unthinkable Heights In Consumption Plunge

From Europe To Japan To South Korea, Economic Gloom Is Pervasive

May 29, 2020

A reality check amid the equity market euphoria.

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Leave a Comment on From Europe To Japan To South Korea, Economic Gloom Is Pervasive

Trump Poised To Escalate China Tensions With Uighur Bill As Markets Look On

May 29, 2020May 29, 2020

Human rights take center stage in worsening spat.

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6 Comments on Trump Poised To Escalate China Tensions With Uighur Bill As Markets Look On

Marko Kolanovic ‘Dials Down’ Bullish Call After Nailing Stock Surge, Delivers COVID-19 Update Amid Reopenings

May 28, 2020May 29, 2020

“Ultimately we think that politicizations of COVID-19 will backfire”…

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Fed Engineers $1 Trillion Miracle In US Corporate Bond Market

May 28, 2020May 28, 2020

“…the perfect answer for a central bank dealing with a credit crunch”.

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8 Comments on Fed Engineers $1 Trillion Miracle In US Corporate Bond Market

Here’s Everything Goldman Said About Bitcoin In ‘Tulip Mania’ Slides

May 28, 2020May 29, 2020

“We have compared bitcoin and ether… to the Gouda variety of tulip bulbs”.

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18 Comments on Here’s Everything Goldman Said About Bitcoin In ‘Tulip Mania’ Slides

Albert Edwards: FAAMG Stocks Are ‘Nonsense On Stilts. Embrace The Coming Crash.’

May 28, 2020May 28, 2020

“At what point does the stark disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street become a political embarrassment”?

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13 Comments on Albert Edwards: FAAMG Stocks Are ‘Nonsense On Stilts. Embrace The Coming Crash.’

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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