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Nobody Say ‘Second Wave’
Another day, another steep increase in hospitalizations in Texas.
While I am scrupulous in maintaining a generally neutral, non-alarmist tone when it comes to coverage of what many outlets have already branded a "second wave" of COVID-19 in the US, I'd be remiss to call the incoming numbers out of key states anything other than what they are: Evidence that the reopening push is leading to more infections. Yes, increased testing is part of the story, but it's not the whole story.
The latest dat
Second wave or continuation of the first, it’s kind of moot. We’re on track for ~200,000 deaths by Labor Day, ~250,000 by Election Day — the majority of them in red states. And then, barring mass production of an effective vaccine, the stuff really hits the fan.
This whole badly mismanaged situation is going to be a disaster for the economy and the country more broadly. The silver lining is that Trump, through sheer incompetence and a serious case of Dunning-Kreuger syndrome, is creating the conditions for long-overdue social and economic change in the U.S.
Dunning – Kruger is a spot on assessment! I would add a little of Alfred Adler’s work on inferiority / superiority complexes also contribute. Thanks mfn.
Also, if Erich Fromm was still alive he would have a DT chapter in his Anatomy of Human Destructiveness effort.
If people simply re-institute isolation themselves then a lockdown is not required but the effect is the same. THis newly approved steroid is only helpful if you are in an ICU bed. If beds are full people die needlessly.
DeSantis is correct about hospital capacity – IF illnesses are conveniently distributed over the state. The problem is it never happens that way. State-wide capacity that includes open beds in Tallahassee won’t help if Miami-Dade maxes out.
Excellent point, PJSPHD.
Last time when I knew it was going to be bad I felt good about predicting doom, but then shortly afterwards I realized great regret that I didn’t stockpile PPE and try and stimulate ventilator manufacture – things that could have saved more lives. Today I wonder what can I personally do to help reduce the horrific impact of the upcoming wave.
It seems that the governors of many states — mine included — have adopted a concept most often used by generals in wartime, the idea of the “acceptable loss level” when referring to the price of a battle strategy. As in, death is inevitable if we look at the overall objective so our job is to keep it to an acceptable level. This seems like a somewhat perverted view of the classic “Trolley Car Problem” in which those of us left alive are semi-willing accomplices. Except to buy food and necessary medication, I am staying home.
Roger that. As a general, assessing hospital capacity, like supply lines in a military campaign would be the most important consideration