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Featured

Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Let’s Talk Blue Waves

    November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026October 31, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026

Markets

What’s What And WTF?

October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

    October 28, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

economy

‘Remains Elevated’

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

What’s Really Behind A Steeper US Yield Curve?

June 6, 2020June 6, 2020

And what comes next?

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5 Comments on What’s Really Behind A Steeper US Yield Curve?

Regime Shift In Stocks Screams ‘V-Shaped’ Recovery

June 6, 2020June 6, 2020

It’s a big gamble, that’s for sure. But so is life.

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8 Comments on Regime Shift In Stocks Screams ‘V-Shaped’ Recovery

The Lobster King, America First And A Potentially Dangerous Chart

June 6, 2020June 6, 2020

“It’s the same lobster”.

Read More

4 Comments on The Lobster King, America First And A Potentially Dangerous Chart

There Can Be No Change.

June 6, 2020June 7, 2020

We are powerless to change the narrative.

Read More

36 Comments on There Can Be No Change.

We’re All Mad Here.

June 5, 2020June 6, 2020

But what isn’t ludicrous these days? 

Read More

oil4 Comments on We’re All Mad Here.

‘It’s All About The Future’ (Here Comes The Pain Trade)

June 5, 2020

Famous last words?

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6 Comments on ‘It’s All About The Future’ (Here Comes The Pain Trade)

Stock Surge Set To Become Greatest Bear Market Rally In History. Sell At S&P 3,250?

June 5, 2020

We could see 3,250 within days.

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3 Comments on Stock Surge Set To Become Greatest Bear Market Rally In History. Sell At S&P 3,250?

‘I Fell Off My Chair. We Need To Massively Revise Projections’: Market Stunned By US Jobs Report

June 5, 2020June 5, 2020

“There will naturally be some doubt lingering about these figures”.

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7 Comments on ‘I Fell Off My Chair. We Need To Massively Revise Projections’: Market Stunned By US Jobs Report

Rewrite The Script: Unemployment Rate Drops, As US Labor Market Stages Dramatic Rebound

June 5, 2020June 5, 2020

An astonishing turnaround.

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21 Comments on Rewrite The Script: Unemployment Rate Drops, As US Labor Market Stages Dramatic Rebound

Carte Blanche.

June 5, 2020June 5, 2020

“The mood remains ‘risk on'”.

Read More

oil3 Comments on Carte Blanche.

Betting On The Fed: Tsunami Into Credit Funds Smashes Records

June 4, 2020

Insatiable.

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6 Comments on Betting On The Fed: Tsunami Into Credit Funds Smashes Records

Red Ink, Too Much Cash, And A Witches’ Brew

June 4, 2020June 5, 2020

The chances of meaningful change are slim. I can’t disagree. But “there are plenty of things to buy”.

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18 Comments on Red Ink, Too Much Cash, And A Witches’ Brew

A Record-Shattering Collapse In US Trade And Globalization’s ‘Nail In The Coffin’ Moment

June 4, 2020June 4, 2020

“Without being melodramatic”…

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3 Comments on A Record-Shattering Collapse In US Trade And Globalization’s ‘Nail In The Coffin’ Moment

‘Silver Lining’ Disappears In Jobless Claims (Imagine That)

June 4, 2020June 4, 2020

42.6 million and counting.

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3 Comments on ‘Silver Lining’ Disappears In Jobless Claims (Imagine That)

ECB Adds €600 Billion To Pandemic QE Facility, Bringing Firepower To €1.35 Trillion

June 4, 2020June 4, 2020

The bazooka gets larger.

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Leave a Comment on ECB Adds €600 Billion To Pandemic QE Facility, Bringing Firepower To €1.35 Trillion

Pause For Reset

June 4, 2020June 4, 2020

It’s not surprising to see a bit of a regime flip, if only for a day.

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2 Comments on Pause For Reset

Six Months From Now, We’ll Know Who Was Disastrously Wrong

June 3, 2020June 4, 2020

Extreme scenarios and the peril of screwing it all up.

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7 Comments on Six Months From Now, We’ll Know Who Was Disastrously Wrong

Socialism For The Rich: The Biggest Names In Finance Are Stone, Cold Hypocrites

June 3, 2020June 3, 2020

Where’s your damn free lunch? 

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30 Comments on Socialism For The Rich: The Biggest Names In Finance Are Stone, Cold Hypocrites

More Chaos: Esper Says Pentagon Doesn’t Back Using Military Against Citizens. Trump Bans Chinese Planes.

June 3, 2020June 3, 2020

“I do not support invoking the Insurrection Act”.

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12 Comments on More Chaos: Esper Says Pentagon Doesn’t Back Using Military Against Citizens. Trump Bans Chinese Planes.

Nomura’s McElligott On The ‘True Accelerant’ For An ‘Outright Rotation’

June 3, 2020June 3, 2020

“Many of these previously ‘left for dead’ equities have beta/convexity to upside in economic growth or inflation”.

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oil1 Comment on Nomura’s McElligott On The ‘True Accelerant’ For An ‘Outright Rotation’

In 2020, ‘Winning’ Means Only Losing 2.8 Million Jobs In A Month

June 3, 2020June 3, 2020

Another reason to believe in a “V-shaped” recovery?

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2 Comments on In 2020, ‘Winning’ Means Only Losing 2.8 Million Jobs In A Month

Green Shoots From The Smoldering Ashes

June 3, 2020June 15, 2020

A few visuals help explain cautious optimism.

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1 Comment on Green Shoots From The Smoldering Ashes

Rally Mode.

June 3, 2020June 3, 2020

“At the moment nothing seems to tire this equity market”.

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4 Comments on Rally Mode.

Everything Is Wrong In The World. Except For Stocks. The Stocks Seem Fine.

June 2, 2020June 2, 2020

74% say America is on the wrong track. But the stocks are fine. Thanks for asking.

Read More

oil3 Comments on Everything Is Wrong In The World. Except For Stocks. The Stocks Seem Fine.

It All Burns Down.

June 2, 2020June 3, 2020

“A red flag to a bull, even if it is bullish for assets”.

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17 Comments on It All Burns Down.

Euphoric ‘Mothers’ And ‘Giant Painkillers’

June 2, 2020June 2, 2020

“…symptomatic of a euphoric stock market”.

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Leave a Comment on Euphoric ‘Mothers’ And ‘Giant Painkillers’

While You Weren’t Looking, China Launched A Little Soft QE

June 2, 2020June 2, 2020

It’s “not QE” in a precise sense.

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Leave a Comment on While You Weren’t Looking, China Launched A Little Soft QE

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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