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Featured

My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

October 29, 2026
  • Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

    October 29, 2026October 29, 2026
  • ‘Remains Elevated’

    October 29, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

Markets

Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

    October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

economy

Dissembling Strategery

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • An ARM And A Leg

    October 28, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s A Big Week

    October 25, 2026October 27, 2026

Geopolitics

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

Goldman Says Fed QT Starts In July, Sees Peak Omicron

January 10, 2022January 10, 2022

Goldman joined the ranks of those predicting four Fed hikes in 2022, as Wall Street

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5 Comments on Goldman Says Fed QT Starts In July, Sees Peak Omicron

Boring Old Profits

January 9, 2022January 16, 2022

Lost in the fog of a nascent, Fed-inspired rates tantrum is the imminent onset of

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15 Comments on Boring Old Profits

Rates Tantrum Pulls ‘Year-End’ Forward By 51 Weeks

January 9, 2022January 10, 2022

One amusing — if somewhat trite — takeaway from last week’s fireworks in the bond

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3 Comments on Rates Tantrum Pulls ‘Year-End’ Forward By 51 Weeks

Bond Blowup Meets Inflation Report In Early 2022 Reckoning

January 9, 2022January 12, 2022

All eyes will be on US rates in the new week, as 2022’s burgeoning bond

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7 Comments on Bond Blowup Meets Inflation Report In Early 2022 Reckoning

Fed’s ‘Remarkable Turn’ Puts Big Red Circle Around March

January 8, 2022January 10, 2022

“We’re at a point in time where we need to adjust policy,” Mary Daly said

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6 Comments on Fed’s ‘Remarkable Turn’ Puts Big Red Circle Around March

Peak Apple? And FAAMG As World’s 3rd Largest Country

January 8, 2022January 9, 2022

“I never thought I’d see a $3 trillion market cap,” one incredulous PM said this

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4 Comments on Peak Apple? And FAAMG As World’s 3rd Largest Country

Rate Shock Shakes Wall Street Money Tree

January 8, 2022January 13, 2022

The 2022 rates shock is here. Already. Maybe it’ll be gone before most market participants

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1 Comment on Rate Shock Shakes Wall Street Money Tree

The Bears Have It (And A Word On Crypto’s ‘Crash’)

January 7, 2022January 9, 2022

For months, BofA’s Michael Hartnett warned that the first half of 2022 would likely be

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17 Comments on The Bears Have It (And A Word On Crypto’s ‘Crash’)

Keeping Up With The Waltons

January 7, 2022January 8, 2022

More pressure on the Fed to hike rates. That was the consensus takeaway from the

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2 Comments on Keeping Up With The Waltons

Wild Jobs Miss Comes With Super-Hot Wages, 3.9% Unemployment

January 7, 2022January 11, 2022

The US economy added just 199,000 jobs last month, the government’s hotly anticipated December payrolls

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4 Comments on Wild Jobs Miss Comes With Super-Hot Wages, 3.94 Unemployment

2022’s ‘Most Underappreciated Risk’ As Euro-Area Inflation Hits Record

January 7, 2022January 8, 2022

Inflation in Europe was supposed to slow in December. It didn’t. Prices rose a record

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Leave a Comment on 2022’s ‘Most Underappreciated Risk’ As Euro-Area Inflation Hits Record

How Delightful Was 2021? Ask Bentley

January 6, 2022January 8, 2022

The world’s richest 10 people saw their collective net worth rise by almost $400 billion

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3 Comments on How Delightful Was 2021? Ask Bentley

Where To Now For America’s Housing Bubble?

January 6, 2022January 8, 2022

Home prices are through the roof, mortgage rates are rising alongside US yields and the

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2 Comments on Where To Now For America’s Housing Bubble?

The Hidden Risk From QT 2022

January 6, 2022January 7, 2022

The extension of 2022’s burgeoning rates selloff in the wake of the December Fed minutes

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7 Comments on The Hidden Risk From QT 2022

Familiar Tales From A Warped Economy

January 6, 2022January 8, 2022

US jobless claims edged up last week and a gauge of services sector activity suggested

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2 Comments on Familiar Tales From A Warped Economy

‘End Of An Era’: Sea Change Seen In Abruptly Hawkish Fed

January 6, 2022January 14, 2022

Risk sentiment took a hit Thursday, as global equities responded to a Fed which, by

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9 Comments on ‘End Of An Era’: Sea Change Seen In Abruptly Hawkish Fed

Verbose And Ill-Organized

January 5, 2022January 11, 2022

A picture of a despondent looking floor trader was situated next to a file photo

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2 Comments on Verbose And Ill-Organized

Ray Dalio And The Folly Of Claiming Too Much For Oneself

January 5, 2022January 6, 2022

“At the risk of boring you by repeating myself,” Ray Dalio began, in the first

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5 Comments on Ray Dalio And The Folly Of Claiming Too Much For Oneself

Where We Are, And What (May) Be Coming Next

January 5, 2022January 6, 2022

There’s quite a bit of nuance to the US rates story. As I’ve attempted (with

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Leave a Comment on Where We Are, And What (May) Be Coming Next

Head Fake? Monster ADP Beat Raises Bar For December Jobs Report

January 5, 2022January 8, 2022

Private sector employers in the US added twice as many jobs as expected in December,

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Leave a Comment on Head Fake? Monster ADP Beat Raises Bar For December Jobs Report

Another Chinese Tech Wipeout Underscores Hidden Risk

January 5, 2022January 5, 2022

Hong Kong’s inauspicious start to the new year continued Wednesday, as tech shares were bludgeoned

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1 Comment on Another Chinese Tech Wipeout Underscores Hidden Risk

Goldman On How Bitcoin Gets To $100,000

January 4, 2022January 14, 2022

Bitcoin came into 2022 nursing what, for any regular asset, would count as a grievous

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1 Comment on Goldman On How Bitcoin Gets To $100,000

Explaining 2022’s Burgeoning Bond Bear

January 4, 2022January 5, 2022

By Tuesday afternoon in the US, “Treasury selloff” had replaced “stock rally” in headlines documenting

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4 Comments on Explaining 2022’s Burgeoning Bond Bear

A Record 4.5 Million Americans Quit A Job In November

January 4, 2022January 14, 2022

4.5 million Americans quit their jobs in November, 370,000 more than the previous month and

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2 Comments on A Record 4.5 Million Americans Quit A Job In November

‘Something That Resembles Normal’

January 4, 2022January 4, 2022

Perhaps there’s a light at the end of the tunnel after all. Two key gauges

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2 Comments on ‘Something That Resembles Normal’

‘Confident, Hungry Bulls’ And One Very Rich Man

January 4, 2022January 4, 2022

“Stay bullish,” that was the message from JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka on Tuesday. “Positive catalysts are

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Leave a Comment on ‘Confident, Hungry Bulls’ And One Very Rich Man

1 Million. But Who’s Counting?

January 4, 2022January 10, 2022

Headed into 2022, the US was averaging 300,000 new COVID cases per day, more than

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3 Comments on 1 Million. But Who’s Counting?

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • CL on Lagarde Versus Le Pen?
  • Old Cyclist on ‘Remains Elevated’
  • BustedClock on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)
  • Mr. Dog on Boom!

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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