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Curtin’s Warning: Americans May ‘Misinterpret’ Fed Hikes
There was no improvement in US consumer sentiment during the back half of January. In fact, sentiment deteriorated further.
That was the overarching message from the final read on the University of Michigan's gauge for this month. At 67.2, the headline index dropped from the preliminary print, touching a new decade low in the process (figure below).
The range, from nearly four-dozen economists, was 67 to 70. So, the actual print very nearly matched the most pessimistic guess.
Notably, there
I find myself considering more and more often that the equities markets trade not on events and facts, but on sentiment- which may or may not be aligned with events and facts.
One thing to consider is how much equities are moved by the behemoth ETF’s. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/the-autopilot-economy/618497/
This is a great read. The other way of looking at this situation is that the passive ETFs let the active managers do “the fishing” – meaning that the active managers not only source the winners for the ETFs, but they also take the losses for the losers – therefore saving the passive investors from those losers. So far, this is working- now I am heavily in ETFs, but when I started out, there were a few times when I was 100% in one stock.
If the Fed policy shift does actually work, they waited too long to execute and they are moving too slowly. The Midterms are going to be a dumpster fire and by the time these actions actually effect real change, it will have been too late. If they don’t work, then there is little to no path forward with a deadlocked government that’s more interested in Senate rules than improving the state of the nation.
I don’t understand the delay. Do they have to wait until March to raise?
H-Man, great point that most people believe raising rates is poison rather than the medicine.