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You Ignore Geopolitical Firestorms At Your Own Peril: Chief Economist
This kind of complacency is in the face of multiple flashpoints and powder kegs is “unwelcome.”
Trader: ‘You Don’t Always Get Something For Nothing’
“Traders like to blame all the world’s ills on central bank behavior and then scream when markets act like markets. Or their machines act like robots.”
Risks Aplenty.
And now, back to your regularly scheduled programming…
Lira Collapses Most Since Coup As Gulen Witch Hunt Triggers Diplomatic Crisis With U.S.
This of course stems directly from Erdogan’s ongoing efforts to bring arch nemesis Fethullah Gulen to “justice.” Pretty much anything that goes wrong for Erdogan gets blamed one of two things: 1) a Kurdish conspiracy, 2) a Gulen-linked conspiracy. This latest spat with Washington is no exception.Â
The Austin Powers World.
“There’s real danger but at the same time, the central figures are so laughable that it’s difficult to accept it as reality”…
Sheep Logic.
“There’s no domesticated animal species that has had more of a reputational fall from grace than the sheep. To call someone a sheep today is just about the worst insult there is. To call someone a sheep is to call them stupid and — more pointedly — stupidly obedient and in thrall to some bad shepherd.”
Trump To Declare Iran Deal Not In America’s Interests, Setting Stage For Epic Disaster
Let me just be as clear as possible: this is a potentially disastrous decision. He is going to open the door for Iran to resume its nuclear weapons program and indeed, by effectively spitting in the face of all the parties involved in crafting the deal, he is going to further isolate Washington from the rest of the world.Â
Russia, Assange, Sputnik, And The Catalan Referendum
“The Russian propaganda machine’s approach to the Catalan question is not uniform. RT’s coverage appears more balanced than that of Sputnik; Assange’s tweets were boosted by some probable pro-Kremlin bots, but these do not appear to have been the majority.”
John Kerry: If Trump Backs Out Of Iran Deal, It Will Be Washington, Not Tehran That’s Isolated
“we believed it would be easier to deal with other differences with Tehran if we weren’t simultaneously confronting a nuclear regime.”
‘Bearishness Comes At You Pretty Fast’
“The difference this time is that those macro pressures are being combined with a broad array of idiosyncratic negatives.”
Powder Keg Alert: Kurdish Referendum In Focus As Erdogan Threatens Oil Flows, Military Strike
“Our military is not (at the border) for nothing. We could arrive suddenly one night.”
Trump Will Fire Mueller – Here’s What Happens After That
“In the scenario outlined above, in which Trump faces, at the very worst, impeachment without removal, he won’t have completely undone the norms, but he will have eroded them. His tenure will have moved the line of the conceivable.”
Turkish Delight: Trading ‘The Great British Selloff’
…do note that there’s a wild card here.
Is Anyone Worried About Emerging Market Stocks Sitting At 3-Year Highs?
…this is another one of those scenarios where everyone seems to be pretty damn sure that nothing can go wrong.Â
To Mongolia And Beyond
I found you some yield…
This Hasn’t Happened In 22 Weeks…
Turning point?
Uh-Oh: Mueller Asks White House To Hand Over Documents In Notable Escalation
For the first time, Mueller and his team have formally asked the White House to produce documents.
‘They’re Playing With Fire!’: There’s No Geopolitical Risk Priced Into Oil
“Investors should not interpret this as a sign of quiet trading in the summer and muted price moves ahead. Instead, we view this as a good opportunity to add to their long exposure with cheap optionality, especially with global oil inventories continuing to tighten and geopolitics heating up again.”
Trader: ‘It’s Easy To Forget Who’s Running This Show’
“It sure makes sense. But looking back on how asset prices have behaved over the last two weeks, you’d be hard pressed to make that case.”
The Germans Are ‘Euphoric’ And Christian Gives You A Good ‘Poking’
“This whole idea about a higher euro being bad for exporters has quite a few things you can poke at.”
Pay Attention! DAX Under Pressure Again As Automakers Plunge, Euro Weighs
Well, the fallout from Friday’s blockbuster automaker collusion report continues for Daimler AG, Volkswagen, and BMW. You’ll
DAX VIX Soars As German Stocks Plunge Most This Year
…when you combine that batshit crazy scenario with the new report on automaker collusion and a surging euro, what do you get? Well, you get the worst day for German equities this year.
That ‘Throw Away Line’ Was Not, In Fact, A ‘Throw Away Line’
“That throw away line, that people came to expect and then ignore, was very likely to have been delivered with serious intent and forethought.”
‘The Impulses Turn Negative’: Goldman Warns On Emerging Markets
“Hence, despite the very supportive Q1 data, the recent moderation (which affects the data over the next six months) suggests that the impulse to EM growth should switch from a ‘strong positive’ in 1H 2017 to a ‘soft negative’ in 2H 2017.”
‘People Are Going To See There’s No Liquidity’: EM ETFs Face ‘Minsky Moment’
As for what’s in store, Hauner warns that once “the big Minsky” moment comes, “people will be sitting on these ETFs and find there’s no liquidity.”
Geopolitics! Won At 4-Month Low, Lira Sinks, Trump Says ‘Very Severe’ Shit Is Goin’ Down
Well, the won is at four-month low against the dollar on Thursday because, well, because
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