Misplaced Optimism, False Fed Optic, Liquidity Blamed For Sturdy Stocks
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson still thinks earnings estimates are too optimistic. He’s also convinced that equities
Credit Suisse Had A Bad Quarter
Credit Suisse released Q1 results on Monday. They weren’t great. I suppose you could say
Understanding The Valuation-Rates-Macro Nexus
If last year’s cross-asset malaise taught us anything, it’s that no correlation, no matter how
Macron’s China Strategy Backfires As Diplomat Infuriates Baltics
“It is strange to hear an absurd version of the ‘history of Crimea’ from a
If SVB Was A ‘Crisis,’ Six-Month Rate Cut Odds Are 70%
Last week, during a Bloomberg forum, Brian Moynihan suggested the media and market participants might
A Fragile Equilibrium Meets Key Data As Traders Await Fed
Fed officials will be in their pre-meeting communications moratorium this week, which is just as
Reinventing Wheels
“Is that ready?” It was 4:45 AM, or thereabouts. Kazakhstan had floated the tenge, and
Another De-Dollarization Reality Check
It’s not just your imagination, even if the narrative is (mostly) imaginary: De-dollarization is a
D.C. ‘X-Date’ Debate Heats Up Amid Lackluster Tax Receipts
When will the US default? Never. Or at least not in the way that everyone
High Profits, Hibernating Fear
Earlier this week, I talked a bit about the “too low” VIX. It’s a familiar
Breaking The Weak To Brake Inflation
It’s fine unless you need new financing. That applies in a lot of contexts right
25/25/25/25
A couple of days ago, I mentioned the 25/25/25/25 portfolio again. The case for embracing
‘Locking In’ Inflation: Revenge Of The Theories
Are central banks “locking in” above-target inflation? You’d like to think not. And policymakers would
US Business Surveys Show No Slowdown, Inflation Heating Up Again
So much for the “slowdown” narrative. You might’ve assumed the second-largest bank failure in US
‘Partly Booming’ European Services Puts ECB In ‘Sticky’ Situation
Activity in Europe’s services sector is picking up rapidly. Whether that’s a good thing depends
Money Market Assets Dive, Fed Backstop Usage Rises Amid Tax Distortions
US money market fund assets plunged by almost $70 billion over the weekly reporting period
Yellen Stakes Out US Position Ahead Of China Tech Restrictions
For the third time in as many months, I’m compelled to inform you that Joe
‘The IMF Is Wrong. The Ice Age Is Dead’: Albert Edwards
In February of 2020, on the eve of the pandemic, SocGen’s Albert Edwards made a
US Home Prices Fall In ‘Unique Market’
Existing home prices in the US are falling. Or were falling. And for real this
5 Reasons For A ‘Too Low’ VIX
Over and over again last year, market participants of all shapes and sizes asked the
Slowdown Ahoy? Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Point To Deceleration
US jobless claims are getting interesting again, but only mildly so, and I hesitate to
Musk’s Margins
You wouldn’t know it from all the times I criticized him last year, but I
‘Greedflation’ Probably On Borrowed Time
I’ve been on (and on, and on) about so-called “Greedflation.” Whenever something goes wrong in
What’s The Fed Thinking? Ask ChatGPT
Notwithstanding terrifying warnings+ about “nonhuman minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us,”
Trading Around America’s Debt Ceiling
As Kevin McCarthy made clear this week while doing his best Ronald Reagan impression at
UK’s Economic Nightmare Rolls On
The UK’s inflation problem isn’t getting better. “These figures reaffirm exactly why we must continue
Morgan Stanley Posts Solid Results, But Provisions Surge
Morgan Stanley rounded out big US bank earnings Wednesday with a solid set of numbers
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