Do Americans even care about the economy anymore?
You’d think the answer is (still) a resounding “Yes!” After all, the state of the economy determines families’ financial fate. Money doesn’t buy happiness, but being destitute can be conducive to sadness, that’s for sure.
Of course, US-style capitalism hasn’t worked for “real” people in decades, something I explored and explained at length in monthly letters+ from February and March. Indeed, I think it’s fair to suggest a kind of fatalism set in a long time ago with the modern day serfdom that came to define the country’s services-based, winner-take-all economy.
So, it is “the economy, stupid,” as James Carville famously put it, but not quite in the way he meant. In the three decades since he coined the phrase, voters became so disenchanted with their economic plight that they bet it all on a populist long shot, and may well do so again in 2024. It’s not any one president’s economy that’s broken, it’s the whole economic system.
Although populism leans heavily on nebulous promises to solve various problems, including and especially those associated with the perception of lost economic vibrancy, the message is couched in appeals to baser instincts — the overtones are replete with “-isms” other than those associated with economics.
Given the primacy of the culture wars in American politics (and, really, in the politics of other developed nations), it’s perhaps not surprising that Joe Biden’s low approval rating looks anomalous in the context of America’s rock-bottom unemployment rate.
“[You] need to go back to the early ’50s to see a 3.4% unemployment rate coexist with a low 37% presidential approval rating,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett noted.
He offered a simple explanation, calling inflation the “sole macro reason” for the public’s disenchantment with Biden. “Maybe [it’s] not a good idea for the Fed to pause when inflation is 5%,” Hartnett ventured.
While inflation may indeed be the “sole macro reason” (my italics) for Biden’s poor polling, I’d argue inflation is just a convenient excuse for one side of the political spectrum to give a thumbs down to a president they’d disapprove of regardless.
America is riven. The culture wars are all that matter. For (far too) many voters, patently absurd manifestations of various ideological divides take precedence over the nation’s jobless rate when it comes to assessing the performance of a sitting president. Inflation is pertinent. But so is Disney’s war with Ron DeSantis.
The main problem for Biden is that although a 70-year-low unemployment rate and still-hot nominal GDP growth weren’t sufficient to bolster his approval rating, an uptick in joblessness and slower growth will surely be one more excuse for GOP voters (and Republican-leaning Independents) to disapprove — irrespective of what happens with inflation as the economy cools.
So, unfortunately for this White House, it will indeed be “the economy, stupid” in a disinflationary recession, even though it wasn’t “the economy, stupid” during the inflationary boom.
Nailed it, there will always be a reason for right wingers to hate the president they didn’t vote for even if every real metric that matters to them is positive. Thank you Fox News.
Q: Do you know who said “If money will solve your problems, you don’t have problems”?
A: Someone with money said that.
“They say money can’t buy happiness, but I ain’t never seen someone crying on a Jet-Ski.”
I’m not sure this is true, but my introduction to this quote was in the form of “Money can’t buy you happiness, but it can buy you a yacht that lets you pull right up next to happiness,” and it was attributed to Hunter S. Thompson.
“Why is everybody so obsessed? Money can’t buy us happiness”
How soon the Hoi polloi forget the 3 mile long car lines for food with bmws, and Mercedes on line, in early 2020. Inflation was low then right? Remember 20% unemployment and covid everywhere. And Brandon was not in office then. The greatest president in US history was.
That is far too many facts for that demographic to care. Zero facts is preferable.
“For (far too) many voters, patently absurd manifestations of various ideological divides take precedence over the nation’s jobless rate when it comes to assessing the performance of a sitting president.”
You’ve just reminded me of something I hadn’t thought of in a long time.
In 7th grade, I opted to join the school newspaper as an elective. One day (this would have been in the late 80s), the teacher brought in a group of elderly folks from a community retirement home for us to practice interviewing. Their politics & personalities ranged across the entire spectrum, but there was one–and only one–question to which they all gave the same answer.
“Who was the best president of your lifetime?”
They all said FDR.
These folks were from the Greatest Generation; they had all lived through World War II as adults. Many of them were deeply conservative, but that didn’t matter. For them, there was no question over who the best president was, and it had nothing to do with his political affiliation or his stance on partisan political issues. It had everything to do with the content of his Character.
Queue up the Kansas…
Dust in the wind
WMD – don’t forget to tape a penny on the stylus to keep it from hopping around.
2024 will be a true test of which lesser of two evils prevails…plain and simple…
…general populace wise…