US producer prices rose less than expected and jobless claims exceeded estimates, in a round of data that may help cement the case for an end to the most aggressive Fed tightening cycle in a generation, although that overstates the importance of what, admittedly, isn’t top-tier data.

At 264,000, claims rose 22,000 in the week to May 6, and were the highest since October of 2021. The range of estimates, from nearly four-dozen economists, was 232,000 to 260,000.

As a reminder, the claims narrative shifted early last month, when a raft of revisions altered the trajectory of a series that spent months meandering near multi-decade lows.

The four-week moving average is now 245,250, the highest in some 18 months. If you’re in the “bad labor market news is good inflation news” camp, that’s progress. Of course, such assessments are uncouth to the extent they trivialize the plight of the newly jobless.

Continuing claims rose 12,000 in the week ended April 29 to 1.813 million, fewer than expected.

Meanwhile, producer prices rose 0.2% in April, less than the 0.3% consensus expected. March’s MoM decline, the largest in nearly three years, was revised to show a slightly smaller drop.

Excluding food and energy, final demand prices rose 0.2%, matching estimates. The ex-trade services print likewise showed a modest 0.2% gain.

If you’re concerned about services inflation, I’m not sure the figures were especially encouraging. More than three quarters of April’s PPI increase was attributable to final demand services. The 0.3% increase there was the largest in five months, and came courtesy of, somewhat amusingly, a 4% jump in prices for portfolio management. Gauges for food wholesaling and hospital inpatient care, among other indexes, rose.

On the goods side, the energy gauge jumped 0.8%, the first increase since January, and an about-face from March’s sharp decline. The gasoline index rose more than 8%.

At the risk of losing some nuance, it’s probably best to view the PPI data from a 30,000-foot level at this juncture. The YoY prints are now pretty benign.

The headline final demand gauge rose 2.3% from April of 2022, the core gauges were up between 3.2% and 3.4% on a 12-month basis and the services measure rose just 3%.

The bad news is that the sharp decline in PPI probably presages less in the way of pricing power for corporate America, which in turn suggests margins will come under more pressure as labor bills stay elevated.

All in all, Thursday’s US macro data was another nod in the direction of disinflation and normalization — with all the usual caveats.