Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
An Uneasy, Untenable Calm
Are you still awake? Is this thing on?
It's easy enough to fall asleep on markets right now. Given
I’ve recently added to my list of market risks: malignant complacency.
“The equity market continues to expect the best of both worlds — rate cuts and stable growth.”
That would be a soft landing. Call me crazy but that, imo, is the scenario Jerome Powell is steering us to.
But NO rate cuts until we see two consecutive CPI prints below 3.5%
In the near term, investors might favor big, cash-rich, massively cashflowing companies whose revenues and operations have little/no exposure to the Federal government paying its bills or fully operating. E.g. mega-tech (but not exclusively).
In normal times of stress one would expect a flight to safety, I.e. USTs. But in this case, they aren’t safe and so neither is any bank account. So might as well leave my equities where they are.
I’m leaving everything the way it is except I’m reinvesting all my portfolio income every month.