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Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Lula!

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • It’s A Big Week

    October 25, 2026October 25, 2026

Markets

Credit Canaries

October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • BONDS!!!

    October 22, 2026October 24, 2026
  • Flying Cars, New Share Class Highlight Tesla, Meta Results

    October 21, 2026October 22, 2026

economy

What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Kevin Needs A Credit Event

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026
  • Euphoric Depression

    October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Geopolitics

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

France Can’t Even Save Itself, Let Alone NATO

October 18, 2026October 19, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

Dominoes

May 4, 2023May 4, 2023

“As each domino falls, the next weakest begins to wobble,” Bill Ackman warned. He was

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7 Comments on Dominoes

This Time May Be Different, Powell Says

May 3, 2023May 3, 2023

“We are prepared to do more if greater monetary restraint is warranted,” Jerome Powell said

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3 Comments on This Time May Be Different, Powell Says

Fed Tips End Of Rate Hikes With Inflation Still Miles Above Target

May 3, 2023May 21, 2023

As expected, the Fed raised rates at its May meeting by 25bps in what could

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5 Comments on Fed Tips End Of Rate Hikes With Inflation Still Miles Above Target

Human Resources: Is ChatGPT A Fad?

May 3, 2023May 3, 2023

It’ll be years before we can say, with certainty, whether generative A.I. is a revolution

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3 Comments on Human Resources: Is ChatGPT A Fad?

Russia Claims Ukraine Tried To Kill Putin With Drone

May 3, 2023May 21, 2023

The Kremlin was attacked. Allegedly. Although it wasn’t possible to say precisely what happened, video

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10 Comments on Russia Claims Ukraine Tried To Kill Putin With Drone

US Services Sector Still Expanding, Inflation ‘Concerningly Sticky’

May 3, 2023May 4, 2023

A key gauge of services sector activity in the world’s largest economy was broadly consistent

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3 Comments on US Services Sector Still Expanding, Inflation ‘Concerningly Sticky’

A New ‘Subprime Is Contained’ Moment?

May 3, 2023May 4, 2023

There was no rest for the weary Wednesday, as regional bank shares in the US

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12 Comments on A New ‘Subprime Is Contained’ Moment?

US Private Hiring Jumps ‘Aggressively,’ Pay Growth Drops

May 3, 2023May 3, 2023

US private sector employers added twice as many jobs as expected in April, data released

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The System Is Falling Apart

May 2, 2023May 4, 2023

We need to update, refresh and modernize our systems and thinking. It occurs to me

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19 Comments on The System Is Falling Apart

Knives Are Out For America’s Regional Banks

May 2, 2023May 2, 2023

“There may be another small one, but this pretty much resolves them all,” Jamie Dimon

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1 Comment on Knives Are Out For America’s Regional Banks

US Labor Market Takes Another Step Down Long Road To Normal

May 2, 2023July 24, 2023

For the second consecutive month, US job openings fell more than expected, leaving the door

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4 Comments on US Labor Market Takes Another Step Down Long Road To Normal

CheggMate

May 2, 2023May 2, 2023

Given the expansive A.I. discussion from April’s monthly letter, I’d be remiss not to mention

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Short Vol ‘Manna From Heaven’

May 2, 2023May 3, 2023

It’s been “short vol manna from heaven” lately, Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said Tuesday. This is

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3 Comments on Short Vol ‘Manna From Heaven’

Loan Demand, Money Growth Plunge In EU. Inflation Loiters

May 2, 2023May 3, 2023

As a matter of course, I employ sarcastic derision to document new evidence that inflation

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Leave a Comment on Loan Demand, Money Growth Plunge In EU. Inflation Loiters

Stock ETFs Are $800 Billion Sponge

May 1, 2023May 1, 2023

By November of last year, retail investors had liquidated the entirety of the individual stocks

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2 Comments on Stock ETFs Are $800 Billion Sponge

Mike Wilson Isn’t Buying It

May 1, 2023July 24, 2023

Wall Street’s most famous bear still isn’t buying it. Figuratively or, one assumes, literally. “At

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5 Comments on Mike Wilson Isn’t Buying It

‘Season Of Contradictions’ Grips US Factories As Stagflation Looms

May 1, 2023May 2, 2023

US factory activity contracted for a sixth consecutive month in April. That was the bad

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‘New Milestone’ Spotted In Retail Investor Nasdaq Selling

May 1, 2023May 1, 2023

In the aftermath of the original pandemic lockdowns, tech became even more synonymous with everyday

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1 Comment on ‘New Milestone’ Spotted In Retail Investor Nasdaq Selling

First Republic Passes Away Peacefully. Is In Better Place Now

May 1, 2023May 2, 2023

I have some bad news. After a hard fight, First Republic passed away overnight. It

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5 Comments on First Republic Passes Away Peacefully. Is In Better Place Now

A $2 Trillion Year For Cash?

April 30, 2023April 30, 2023

There’s been no capitulation in aggregate equities flows. So far in 2023, stock-focused ETFs and

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Leave a Comment on A $2 Trillion Year For Cash?

Traders Brace For Tsunami Of Data In FOMC Week

April 30, 2023May 4, 2023

Traders will drown in big data this week. Not the kind ChatGPT leverages to churn

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Leave a Comment on Traders Brace For Tsunami Of Data In FOMC Week

Until The Jobs Are Done

April 30, 2023May 1, 2023

For the second time in as many policy meetings, the Fed will hike rates in

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4 Comments on Until The Jobs Are Done

Taiwan, M2 And Other ‘Recession Now’ Canaries

April 29, 2023July 24, 2023

Infallible or not, the yield curve is a cliché as a recession indicator. Indeed, those

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Leave a Comment on Taiwan, M2 And Other ‘Recession Now’ Canaries

What Could Go Right And What Could Go Wrong

April 29, 2023May 1, 2023

“Recession is a key downside risk,” Goldman’s David Kostin mused, in his latest note. It’s

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1 Comment on What Could Go Right And What Could Go Wrong

What Recession? Where’s The Selloff? A ‘Patient Bear’ Answers

April 28, 2023April 30, 2023

Two things you can count on in addition to death and taxes are investor complacency

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8 Comments on What Recession? Where’s The Selloff? A ‘Patient Bear’ Answers

Apocalypse Now, Says The Yield Curve

April 28, 2023April 28, 2023

When will the world’s largest economy fall into recession? Right now, or sometime very soon,

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Key Takeaways From Michael Barr’s ‘Unflinching’ SVB Review

April 28, 2023July 24, 2023

On Friday, Michael Barr released the Fed’s internal review of its supervision and regulation of

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2 Comments on Key Takeaways From Michael Barr’s ‘Unflinching’ SVB Review

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Gimpy on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • T-Dog on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • Jerry Brown on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • John3D on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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