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Soooo, Stagflation It Is Then?
The word "recession" came up exactly two times in minutes from the May FOMC meeting released on Wednesday afternoon. Once in the context of banks' "substantial loss-absorbing capacity" and the other in the staff forecasts.
When asked during this month's press conference whether Fed staff still anticipated a recession (consistent with what the minutes from March’s policy gathering revealed), Jerome Powell indicated the projections were "broadly similar," even as he emphasized that a downturn i
Pause in June. And Waller is right: The Fed should never again be in the MBS-buying business.
Someone forgot to tell me when they changed the meaning of pause to peak or inflection point.
Of course they are willing to chance a recession to kill inflation. Recessions can be combated, losing your inflation fighting credibility, otoh, is more serious…