Some economists were surprised Thursday by the scope of the decline in US jobless claims, which fell to 242,000 in the week to May 13.

You’d think, given news that the prior week’s spike was attributable in no small part to fraud in Massachusetts, that all professional forecasters would be cautious about projecting another weekly increase. Apparently not, though.

Estimates ranged from 235,000 to 275,000, so at least someone thought claims were set to keep rising. Nearly four-dozen economists ventured a guess. Consensus was 251,000.

Unadjusted claims in Massachusetts tumbled and the seasonally adjusted national headline print did too. The 22,000 WoW decline was the largest since November of 2021.

The four-week moving average fell by 1,000. Actual, unadjusted initial claims were 215,800 down from 234,400. Continuing claims were the lowest in months.

New claimant counts may indeed be “well and truly off the lows,” as one Bloomberg blogger put it Thursday, but if you’re searching for definitive evidence of labor market normalization, this isn’t it. Not yet, anyway.

This time last week, analysts were rushing to pen breathless missives on an imminent surge in claims. They were stale as soon as the media picked up on the Massachusetts distortion, which is to say that in many cases, they were stale before they reached client inboxes.

Another Bloomberg blogger encouraged terminal users to “keep your eye on the ball.” WARN notices are “still consistent” with an upward trajectory for claims (even though those notices have fallen too), and continuing claims are deteriorating “under the surface,” he said. By that, he meant that if you plot the four-week average of the percentage of states in which claims are increasing at least 30% on an annual basis, the line is rising. If that percentage gets into the 15% to 20% range, it usually accelerates, “culminating” in a recession.

I’m sorry, but that’s a bit too much for me. It’s a decent rule of thumb (I guess) and the chart is compelling, but as I’ve emphasized previously while editorializing around the same exercise, it feels a bit belabored. Like: If you drive to Alabama (or Massachusetts), pick a dandelion, climb up a hill on a clear Tuesday night at exactly 11:59, orient yourself north, blow the seeds into a gentle breeze and one falls on your shoe, a recession is assured.

Meanwhile, Lorie Logan isn’t ready to pause rate hikes. “After raising [rates] at each of the last 10 FOMC meetings, we have made some progress,” she told the Texas Bankers Association conference on Thursday.

Then, she hit markets with this: “The data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting. As of today, though, we aren’t there yet.”