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Featured

Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Lula!

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • It’s A Big Week

    October 25, 2026October 25, 2026

Markets

Credit Canaries

October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

    October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • BONDS!!!

    October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

economy

Kevin Needs A Credit Event

October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026
  • Euphoric Depression

    October 19, 2026October 20, 2026
  • Is China’s Balance Sheet Recession Intractable?

    October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Geopolitics

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

France Can’t Even Save Itself, Let Alone NATO

October 18, 2026October 19, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

Spring Binge Building Gave US Home Construction A Hangover

July 19, 2023July 20, 2023

The boom in US home construction abated a bit in June, data released on Wednesday

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1 Comment on Spring Binge Building Gave US Home Construction A Hangover

In The UK, A Rare Glimmer Of Inflation Hope

July 19, 2023July 20, 2023

Believe it or not, the UK delivered some incrementally good news on inflation Wednesday. Consumer

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Leave a Comment on In The UK, A Rare Glimmer Of Inflation Hope

Pros Versus Amateurs

July 18, 2023July 18, 2023

Is there a sentiment disparity between professional and individual investors into the summer equity rally?

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1 Comment on Pros Versus Amateurs

$650 Billion Is Still Bearish. Sort Of.

July 18, 2023

For all the talk of a “FOMO”-driven equity rally, plain old fear is still more

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1 Comment on $650 Billion Is Still Bearish. Sort Of.

Donald Trump Is No Victim

July 18, 2023August 8, 2023

Donald Trump on Tuesday informed the 5.71 million unfortunate souls who wittingly subject themselves to

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9 Comments on Donald Trump Is No Victim

McElligott Flags Potential For ‘Very Large’ Vol Control Selling

July 18, 2023July 19, 2023

A consistent, reliable buyer of equities could morph into a seller going forward. And it

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3 Comments on McElligott Flags Potential For ‘Very Large’ Vol Control Selling

US Retail Sales Miss, But Control Group Doubles Estimates

July 18, 2023July 19, 2023

US retail sales rose less than expected in June, data out Tuesday showed. The figures,

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Leave a Comment on US Retail Sales Miss, But Control Group Doubles Estimates

Upbeat Outlook Helps Offset Morgan Stanley’s ‘Meh’ Quarter

July 18, 2023July 19, 2023

Morgan Stanley delivered Q2 results that underwhelmed on Tuesday. The second quarter began with “subdued

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Leave a Comment on Upbeat Outlook Helps Offset Morgan Stanley’s ‘Meh’ Quarter

BofA Results Clear Bar. Trading Strong Again

July 18, 2023July 18, 2023

Big bank earnings continued to roll in on Tuesday, when Bank of America delivered a

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Leave a Comment on BofA Results Clear Bar. Trading Strong Again

Worst-Case Liquidity Outcome Averted. But Risks Remain

July 17, 2023July 17, 2023

There’s still a ~$1 trillion question hanging over markets: How much Treasury issuance will ultimately

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Leave a Comment on Worst-Case Liquidity Outcome Averted. But Risks Remain

JPMorgan Stays Bearish As Goldman Again Cuts US Recession Odds

July 17, 2023July 18, 2023

Goldman on Monday cut the subjective odds they assign to a US recession. Again. The

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4 Comments on JPMorgan Stays Bearish As Goldman Again Cuts US Recession Odds

The Dollar: It’s Complicated

July 17, 2023August 8, 2023

There was a lot of talk last week about a purported regime shift for the

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4 Comments on The Dollar: It’s Complicated

Morgan Stanley’s ‘Buy Any Dip in Bonds’ Call

July 17, 2023July 18, 2023

Two weeks after taking Bill Dudley to task on his suggestion that the worst isn’t

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2 Comments on Morgan Stanley’s ‘Buy Any Dip in Bonds’ Call

What The Nasdaq 100 Special Rebalance Means For Investors

July 17, 2023

Overconcentration is one of 2023’s key themes amid an epic rally in the same handful

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Leave a Comment on What The Nasdaq 100 Special Rebalance Means For Investors

Putin ‘Terminates’ Grain Deal. Ukraine Blows Up His Bridge Again

July 17, 2023August 8, 2023

It’s not safe on the Kerch Strait Bridge. For the second time in less than

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1 Comment on Putin ‘Terminates’ Grain Deal. Ukraine Blows Up His Bridge Again

Chinese Economy Underwhelms As Struggles Continue

July 16, 2023July 17, 2023

It’s fair to suggest a sense of fatalism has set in among investors regarding the

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2 Comments on Chinese Economy Underwhelms As Struggles Continue

Noisy Quiet Period

July 16, 2023July 24, 2023

I wouldn’t call this week’s US data docket inconsequential, but it’d certainly be fair to

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1 Comment on Noisy Quiet Period

Landing Gear

July 16, 2023July 17, 2023

I don’t love the narrative that says Fed policy is unduly loose based on the

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3 Comments on Landing Gear

What Happens To ‘Excuseflation’ When There’s No Excuse?

July 15, 2023

Lost in the euphoria around the slowdown in consumer price growth and apparently imminent producer

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2 Comments on What Happens To ‘Excuseflation’ When There’s No Excuse?

Where To Now For King Dollar?

July 15, 2023July 17, 2023

This week’s most important market story was doubtlessly the dollar, which fell the most in

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2 Comments on Where To Now For King Dollar?

With Stocks In ‘Optimism Phase,’ Goldman Is Overweight Just One Asset

July 15, 2023July 16, 2023

Stocks are in an “optimism phase.” You can tell because they’re going up. But also

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Leave a Comment on With Stocks In ‘Optimism Phase,’ Goldman Is Overweight Just One Asset

As Good As It Gets, Or Soft Landing Prelude?

July 14, 2023July 24, 2023

For markets and, in some ways, for the US economy, this is probably as good

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5 Comments on As Good As It Gets, Or Soft Landing Prelude?

Equity Fund Flows Suggest Imminent Capitulation ‘Back In’

July 14, 2023July 14, 2023

Inflows to equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds persisted for another week, suggesting left-behind investor cohorts

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Leave a Comment on Equity Fund Flows Suggest Imminent Capitulation ‘Back In’

Popular Strategist Would Short ‘En Fuego’ Risk Assets Later This Summer

July 14, 2023July 16, 2023

“Risk assets en fuego as Goldilocks schools us bears,” wrote BofA’s Michael Hartnett, in the

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5 Comments on Popular Strategist Would Short ‘En Fuego’ Risk Assets Later This Summer

Thrilled Americans Toast Lower Inflation With Huge Sentiment Boost

July 14, 2023July 15, 2023

The animal spirits are stirring. In a testament to the notion that Main Street, like

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Leave a Comment on Thrilled Americans Toast Lower Inflation With Huge Sentiment Boost

Things Are Going Fine At JPMorgan. If You Were Wondering.

July 14, 2023July 15, 2023

The American consumer is still spending, “albeit a little more slowly,” Jamie Dimon said Friday,

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1 Comment on Things Are Going Fine At JPMorgan. If You Were Wondering.

Money Market Funds Back To Outflows. RRP Lowest In 15 Months

July 13, 2023July 13, 2023

Money market fund flows are starting to get choppy. After a mammoth inflow last week,

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Leave a Comment on Money Market Funds Back To Outflows. RRP Lowest In 15 Months

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • John3D on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • gdhalpha on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • T-Dog on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • therealheisenberg on To Be Happy

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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