Sudden Surge In European Natural Gas Spotlights Key Macro Themes

If European natural gas is in the news, it’s usually for the wrong reasons.

In other words: If it’s in the news, prices are rising. Wednesday was no exception.

For once, the problem isn’t Vladimir Putin. Instead, it’s striking LNG workers in Australia, where production employees at two key facilities voted to take action. One possibility, according to media reports, is an indefinite strike.

“Our members are fighting for what they deserve: A fair and reasonable agreement as soon as possible as they are well aware of the hundreds of millions of dollars these companies will lose if protected industrial action slows exports of Australian gas,” a union representative said. “It’s in everyone’s best interest to get back to what our members know best, exporting quality Australian gas to the world.”

Together, the two facilities comprise around 10% of global exports, raising the specter of a supply shortage. Thankfully, storage levels in Europe are adequate, and Putin gave up a lot of his leverage over the market last summer.

Still, a prolonged strike would be a major event, and that was reflected in benchmark prices which at one point rose 40%.

The figure above shows the move at the highs (for dramatic effect). Even after paring gains, Wednesday’s increase (nearly 28%) was the largest since Russia invaded its neighbor.

Needless to say, prices are still nowhere near levels witnessed during the worst of last year’s energy panic in Europe, but the benchmark did top €40 for the first time in a couple of months.

If nothing else, the news spoke to the interplay between some of the 2020s’ main themes: Labor unrest and energy security tied to fossil fuels.

On the “bright” side for Europe, Germany’s lingering manufacturing recession presumably means industrial demand is low (or lower than it would be), and although energy security will remain a pipe dream (get it?) for at least another two years, adequate inventories suggest no immediate risk of a crunch. Sure, the volatility is harrowing. But what isn’t these days?


 

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