US Retail Sales Blow Away Estimates. Empire Fed Gauge Weak
Notwithstanding the scattered protestations of those desperately seeking confirmation bias for “slowdown” narratives that didn’t
China Cuts Rates Most Since 2020 Amid Disastrous Data
While previewing the release of key activity data for the Chinese economy, I not-so-gently suggested
A Critical, Obvious, Underappreciated Point About Real Rates
On countless occasions over the past 12 or so months, Fed critics insisted that despite
Kolanovic Warns Investors: We’re Not Out Of The Inflation Woods
Two benign US CPI reports in a row might make a streak, but they don’t
‘Soft Landing’ Dominates In Macro Narrative Tug Of War
The “soft landing” narrative spent the last two or three months gathering adherents in the
Fed Cuts May End With Rates Still Technically ‘Restrictive’
Early Monday, while documenting Goldman’s call for the commencement of Fed cuts from Q2 2024,
A Word On Goldman’s 2024 Fed Cut Call
Let’s be clear: All forecasts for the trajectory of Fed funds are guesses. Anything can
China’s Zhongzhi Crisis Underscores Risk Of Economic Collapse
An opaque Chinese conglomerate with a trillion yuan in assets spread across everything from real
Between CPI And Jackson Hole
Retail sales and the July FOMC minutes headline in the US this week. Notwithstanding ongoing
‘Bad Folks’ With Problems
China will release key monthly activity figures this week. The news won’t be good, and
America’s ‘Profit Reckoning’ Never Showed Up
This quarter (Q3) marks a year since investors were told to be on watch for
Discretionary Investors Fade Half Of Melt-Up Positioning Increase
For much of 2023, re-leveraging and re-risking was the purview of systematic investor cohorts mechanically
Behold: A Can’t-Miss Options Strategy Finally Sputters
For months (or maybe I should just say for the duration of the summer equity
0DTE Options Take Over As Volume Share Hits Record
If markets feel choppy to you, it’s not your imagination. And if that chop seems
China, EM Dominate US, DM In 2023 Stock Fund Flow Race
I’ve been on at considerable length about the lack of an “all-in” capitulation moment for
A Good News Story. Literally.
Friday’s update on consumer sentiment was an uneventful affair. Americans’ perceptions of the economy and
$130 Billion Tidal Wave Puts US Treasurys On Pace For Record Inflow
For an asset issued by a sovereign exhibiting signs of deteriorating governance and running an
PPI Overshoots In Disappointing Follow Up To Favorable CPI Report
In a minor blow to the US disinflation narrative, producer prices rose more than expected
Another Week, Another Record For Money Market Funds
Another week, another new record for money market fund assets. Inflows to US money funds
Cooling Down, Heating Up
As we celebrate the coolest run of US core inflation in more than two years,
Is The Fed Done?
The Fed may be done. Indeed, the market suspects the Fed is done. July’s CPI
Taking Stock Of Current Melt-Up (And Meltdown) Fuel
The inflation event risk cleared on Thursday morning in the US with no issues. Core
September Fed Hike Unlikely After Second Benign CPI Report
US consumer prices rose in line with expectations last month, according to the most important
‘Forced Selling’ On The S&P? Here Are The Numbers
In “Waiting For Inflation,” I noted that potential vol control de-leveraging is still a subplot
Waiting For Inflation
“CPI eve” sessions are notoriously tedious in the 2020s. Monthly inflation reports out of the
Sudden Surge In European Natural Gas Spotlights Key Macro Themes
If European natural gas is in the news, it’s usually for the wrong reasons. In
A.I. Meets R-Star
Not everyone’s convinced that generative A.I. is the future. While most analysts and economists readily
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