Goldman Says US Recession Odds Have Completely Normalized

This was the summer of the soft landing. So said Goldman, in a new note cutting their subjective 12-month recession odds for the US. Again. It was the third such cut in three months. The call came directly from the digital pen of Jan Hatzius, or at least that's how the bank attributed the note. At just 15%, the odds of a downturn are now "equal to the unconditional average recession probability calculated from the fact that a recession has occurred roughly once every seven years since World Wa

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8 thoughts on “Goldman Says US Recession Odds Have Completely Normalized

    1. Oil prices are mainly an exogenous variable beyond our control, as Biden now knows. The reason for the cartel, now the most successful of all time, is to provide necessary income for countries that have few other sources of needed income/FX. The cartel members are political actors that will keep messing with these prices as they can. “Bitching” won’t change any of this and neither will the party in power.

      1. Not if by “data point” you mean these subjective odds. Obviously, some actual data (e.g., NFP) is more important than other data when it comes to nowcasting, but in terms of calculating consensus for this particular question (subjective odds of a downturn within the next 12 months), it’s just a roll-up of subjective odds.

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