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Featured

Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Lula!

    October 26, 2026October 26, 2026
  • It’s A Big Week

    October 25, 2026October 25, 2026

Markets

Credit Canaries

October 25, 2026October 26, 2026
  • What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

    October 24, 2026October 26, 2026
  • Weekly: Something Wicked This Way Comes?

    October 23, 2026October 26, 2026
  • After The Rally: What’s Next For Treasurys?

    October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • BONDS!!!

    October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

economy

Kevin Needs A Credit Event

October 23, 2026October 25, 2026
  • Return Of The Left-Tail

    October 22, 2026October 23, 2026
  • Dear Lord…

    October 20, 2026October 21, 2026
  • Euphoric Depression

    October 19, 2026October 20, 2026
  • Is China’s Balance Sheet Recession Intractable?

    October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Geopolitics

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

France Can’t Even Save Itself, Let Alone NATO

October 18, 2026October 19, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

Unlucky Number 7: Mortgage Rates Jump After Fitch Move

August 9, 2023August 10, 2023

Thanks Fitch! US mortgage rates sport a seven-handle again, and you can thank, in part

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4 Comments on Unlucky Number 7: Mortgage Rates Jump After Fitch Move

Xi Has Deflation

August 9, 2023September 14, 2023

Deflation is a taboo topic in China. You’re not supposed to talk about it. Especially

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2 Comments on Xi Has Deflation

More Color From The Most Important Market On Earth

August 8, 2023

It’s possible we’re all overstating the significance of recent events in the US Treasury market.

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The C-Suite Can’t Dodge Higher Interest Costs Forever

August 8, 2023August 9, 2023

What happens to the world’s largest economy when corporations finally start to feel the heat

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1 Comment on The C-Suite Can’t Dodge Higher Interest Costs Forever

When Will Corporate America Feel The Heat From Higher Rates?

August 8, 2023August 8, 2023

Rising rates have been a boon to some US corporates, and I don’t just mean

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Congratulations, America! You Now Have $1 Trillion In Credit Card Debt

August 8, 2023September 14, 2023

Congratulations, America! You now have $1 trillion in credit card debt for the first time

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3 Comments on Congratulations, America! You Now Have $1 Trillion In Credit Card Debt

Bad Banks

August 8, 2023August 9, 2023

Moody’s is concerned about America’s banks. And Italy will be making a withdrawal from its

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Excuses Aside, China’s Economic Gloom Continues To Worsen

August 8, 2023August 9, 2023

There was more disappointing economic news out of China on Tuesday. No one should be

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4 Comments on Excuses Aside, China’s Economic Gloom Continues To Worsen

9 Reasons America’s Largest Bank Still Doubts The Rally

August 7, 2023

It’s been a tough year for anyone determined to stick with a bearish call on

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Is The A.I. Bubble In Its ‘Later Innings’?

August 7, 2023September 14, 2023

There’s palpable tension in Wall Street research when it comes to discussions around 2023’s A.I.

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11 Comments on Is The A.I. Bubble In Its ‘Later Innings’?

Americans’ Revolving Credit Falls First Time In 25 Months

August 7, 2023August 8, 2023

Last month, I asked if the US consumer was “finally exhausted.” I was editorializing around

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1 Comment on Americans’ Revolving Credit Falls First Time In 25 Months

Mohammed Bin Salman Needs A Little More Out Of Aramco

August 7, 2023August 7, 2023

Saudi Aramco’s quarterly profit tumbled 38% in Q2, results released on Monday showed. Net income

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Fate Of The World Hangs On Treasury Curve’s Nascent Bear Steepener

August 7, 2023August 8, 2023

The fate of the universe hangs on the nascent bear steepener in the US curve,

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Wilson Says Fiscal Largesse Put Him Offside On US Stocks

August 7, 2023August 8, 2023

Unexpected fiscal largesse. That’s one, but not the only, reason Morgan Stanley’s house call on

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1 Comment on Wilson Says Fiscal Largesse Put Him Offside On US Stocks

The Art Of The Aeronautical Metaphor

August 6, 2023August 6, 2023

Aeronautical metaphors for the US economy (and, more to the point, the Fed’s efforts to

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1 Comment on The Art Of The Aeronautical Metaphor

Why Goldman Is Fading Last Week’s Bond Selloff

August 6, 2023August 7, 2023

As discussed here last week, the move in US reals seen in and around the

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5 Comments on Why Goldman Is Fading Last Week’s Bond Selloff

Inflation Update, Treasury Auctions In Focus After Fitch Whirlwind

August 6, 2023August 11, 2023

Still reeling from last week’s whirlwind, bond traders’ focus will turn to US inflation data

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Buffett’s Cash Pile Approaches Record Near $150 Billion

August 5, 2023August 7, 2023

Break out the Cherry Coke and peanut brittle, it’s Berkshire weekend! They always sneak up

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2 Comments on Buffett’s Cash Pile Approaches Record Near $150 Billion

Micro, Not Macro, Explains 2023’s Stock Returns

August 5, 2023August 7, 2023

Given the daily deluge of headlines documenting every twist and turn along what, rising soft

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1 Comment on Micro, Not Macro, Explains 2023’s Stock Returns

Is Voracious Risk Appetite A Contrarian Indicator?

August 4, 2023August 6, 2023

Needless to say, and notwithstanding a little “friction” around Fitch’s decision to downgrade America, risk

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Commodity Comeback?

August 4, 2023August 6, 2023

Is it time to bet on commodities again? Already riding a huge run-up from the

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1 Comment on Commodity Comeback?

US Equity Fund Flows Slow, China Takes In $4 Billion

August 4, 2023

US equity funds took in a small $322 million on net over the latest weekly

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US Labor Market Cools, Wages Warm

August 4, 2023August 11, 2023

The US economy added just 187,000 jobs in July, Friday’s closely-watched government report showed. Revisions

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2 Comments on US Labor Market Cools, Wages Warm

The Yield-Curve Control Endgame

August 4, 2023August 5, 2023

I’m reluctant to indulge discussions about US debt and deficits. Everyone is ready and willing

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3 Comments on The Yield-Curve Control Endgame

Money Market Funds Set Another New Record

August 3, 2023August 3, 2023

Money market funds took in nearly $30 billion for the second consecutive week, pushing total

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1 Comment on Money Market Funds Set Another New Record

Amazon Rakes In Revenue, Apple Enriches More Lives

August 3, 2023August 11, 2023

Amazon had a lot of revenue in Q2. And they’re on track to have a

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8 Comments on Amazon Rakes In Revenue, Apple Enriches More Lives

Supply, Ackman, Fitch Or All Three?

August 3, 2023August 4, 2023

The bond selloff extended meaningfully on Thursday, as supply concerns, the Fitch downgrade and, at

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3 Comments on Supply, Ackman, Fitch Or All Three?

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Musashimaru on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • therealheisenberg on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • dayjob on Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks
  • rem on Lula!

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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